2022 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

2022 ACADEMY AWARDS

(032522) The 94th Annual Academy Awards (aka: Oscars) will be held on Sunday, March 27th at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California, and will be shown on ABC. The Awards will honor the best films released between March 1 and December 31, 2021. The Academy is returning to a host this year after a three year absence. Actually the multiple hostesses: Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes will be sharing duties during the broadcast. This will mark the first time since 2011 the show has featured multiple hosts.

This marks our 16th year for Academy Awards predictions (see the links above for our previous 15) and as in past years we invited our critics to weigh in with their predictions for this years Oscar race and once again they rose to the task. Back again is reviewer emeritus "Good Old JR" Jim Rutkowski and he is again being joined "Big Tuna" Vito Carli. Each turned in their picks early and as always they are all thoughtfully done. Of the 22 principle categories this year (all listed below) neither has tackled every single nomination, but all were given the option. In some instances you'll see "None picked" by a reviewer in a category. This means the reviewer either hadn't seen any of the nominated films or chose to skip that category, for whatever reason. Out of the 22 categories there are thirty-eight predictions by both reviewers. Vito logged in with 18 picks while JR tackled 20 categories. I want to thank both of our stalwart cinephile's for taking the time to make and in almost all cases elucidate their picks.

A word on the format: If you are reading this before March 27th the order of the nominations conforms to the order awards were announced at the 2021 Oscar telecast. If this years order deviates from last years, the appropriate structural change to this list will be made after this years telecast to conform with the 2022 broadcast. Beyond that (and the final tally) no edits will be made to this list. The linked film titles below are to reviews on this site for the film being cited. The links themselves do not correspond to the reviewers themselves but rather to the review located on this site.

Thanks again gentlemen, the floor is yours.

THE CRITICS HAVE THEIR SAY....

Break out the popcorn and the beverage of your choice, it's the movies night to shine.

The makeup of the voters (like the recent Rock Hall of Fame) has changed dramatically in the last few years. Much of this has been due to an expanding of the academy. If the reporters and publicists are to be believed, the new Oscar voters tend to be younger, more diverse in terms of gender, race and ethnicity and perhaps they might be a little hipper (I guess we’ll see). I am convinced that this year’s Drive My Car or the recent Parasite would’ve gotten a best picture nom ten years ago.

Of course, many will recall some time ago the Oscars expanded to ten best picture choices which is a reaction to Dark Knight getting snubbed (I admit that of all the superhero films this one was the one I would have nominated for best picture.)
Traditionally the Oscars have tended to favor biopics or socially conscious movies (Coda falls in both categories), but it also the one of the first nominated films with deaf cast members. Being the Ricardos and Spencer are even more traditional Oscar fair, but I don’t think they have the momentum to get any major awards.

In order to deter Network grumbling over show length and declining ratings the ceremony have cut eight categories including the Honorary Awards. In my opinion, skipping the scenes of Liv Ullman and Samuel Jackson getting honored is a slap in the face to real film buffs.

This year for some I had more identical "should win" and "will win" choices. Now here’s my guesses....

You can read more of my writings at www.artinterviews.org. I will host a lecture/work shop for the Chicago Poetry Festival at Mount Greenwood Library on April 2 at 2:00 pm on Poetry and Punk.

THIS YEAR'S PREDICTIONS...

Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter as Young Leda Caruso
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story as Anita
Judi Dench – Belfast as Granny
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog as Rose Gordon
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard as Oracene "Brandy" Price

Will win-Ariana De Bose, West Side Story
Thanks to her show-stopping, breakthrough performance in “West Side Story” DeBose has had this category locked down all season, and it’s hard not to be moved by the historical symmetry. Sixty years ago, Rita Moreno won for the same role, Anita, in 1961’s “West Side Story,” making her the first Latina to win an Oscar.

Will win-Ariana De Bose, West Side Story
De Bose is the standout of West Side Story, and if she wins she would make history by being the second actress to win for the same role (Rita Morena won for the first version.) Dench always has a shot but her role is probably too small.

Should win-Kristin Dunst, the Power of the Dog
Kristin Dunst give a tragic and disturbingly effective performance (she should have won for her greatest role in Lars Von Triers’ Melancholia) in The Power of the Dog. Anyone who does not want to save her should check to see I they have a soul.

Best Sound
(Best Sound Mixing + Best Sound Editing combined into one Award starting this year)

Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
West Side Story– Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

Will win-Dune
Whether for the thundering base of “the voice” or the unearthly winds, this was a knockout in sound.

Will win-Dune
Should get many of the technical awards

Should win–Belfast
It was far from the best film but it was the most sonically impressive. I can still hear bomb sounds from the film.

Best Cinematography
Dune – Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story– Janusz Kamiński

Will win-DUNE
It's easy to watch something like Dune and focus on the effects or the production design, or even the performances. But keep an eye out for the way Greg Fraser's camera soars across the desert like a chopper, or tip-toes across tight, shadowy hallways like a spy. Most people don't notice this stuff; Academy voters do.

Will win-Dune
This is another horse race, and I can almost equally envision Dune, Nightmare Alley or Power of the Dog crossing the finish line, but since it is so reliant on visuals I am going to give the slight nod to Dune.

Should win-Tragedy of Macbeth
The cinematography may have been the best aspect of the often-great film which by the way was much more ambitious, and aesthetically pleasing than half the best picture nominations.

Best Documentary – Short Subject
Audible – Matthew Ogens and Geoff McLean
Lead Me Home – Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
The Queen of Basketball – Ben Proudfoot
Three Songs for Benazir – Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
When We Were Bullies – Jay Rosenblatt

None picked

Best Visual Effects
Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

Will win-DUNE
Dune immersed you into a world with dragonfly aircraft and enormous worms. It will win here.

Will and should win-Dune
Because it is vastly superior to every other nominee in this category and it is a film largely dependent on special effects.

Best Animated Feature Film
Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Luca – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

Will win-Encanto
“Encanto” is certainly the juggernaut in this category, with the triple threat of Disney, Lin-Manuel Miranda and a massive hit song that we won’t talk about here (no, no, no). And under normal circumstances it’d be the easy frontrunner, but Disney has not had a good few weeks not to mention the fact that the studio has three nominations in the category which could split votes. Plus, there is massive industry goodwill for “The Mitchells vs the Machines” and it won the Annie award, which is why I think there may be an upset in store.

None picked

Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art – Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
Bestia – Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
BoxBallet – Anton Dyakov
Robin Robin – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
The Windshield Wiper – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez

None picked

Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds – Belfast as Pop
Troy Kotsur – CODA as Frank Rossi
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog as George Burbank
J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos as William Frawley
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog as Peter Gordon

Will win-Troy Kotsur, CODA
Among mostly first-time nominees, Troy Kotsur went from breakthrough to frontrunner over the past couple months, winning at SAG, BAFTAs and Critics Choice and he’s likely to continue that streak come Oscar Sunday. The support for Kotsur and “CODA” has only become more enthusiastic recently and it would be a history-making win. The 53-year-old is the first deaf man to have ever been nominated for an acting prize.

Should and will win-Troy Kotsur, CODA
I don’t think Coda will get any major awards, but this is one of the main categories it could excel in Kotsur’s intrinsic likeability will help. He would also be the first learning impaired person to win. The Power of the Dog guys also have a shot.

Best Foreign Language/International Film
Drive My Car (Japan) in Japanese – directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Flee (Denmark) in Danish – directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen
The Hand of God (Italy) in Italian – directed by Paolo Sorrentino
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan) in Dzongkha – directed by Pawo Choyning Dorji
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) in Norwegian – directed by Joachim Trier

Will win-Japan, Drive My Car
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s “Drive My Car” is a not out of the question best-picture underdog, which makes it a heavyweight in this category. There’s stiff competition here — particularly from Joachim Trier’s supremely lovely “The Worst Person in the World.” But Hamaguchi’s three-hour masterwork — a profound movie about art and dialogue as a means of human connection — should win. And it was my favorite film of 2021.

Will win-Japan, Drive My Car is the obvious choice and it is the most nominated film in the category.

Should win-I can’t say because I did not see the other nominated films except Fell (which I don’t think will win), but I am a little surprised and disappointed that A Hero was not nominated.

Best Live Action – Short Film
Ala Kachuu - Take and Run – Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
The Dress – Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
The Long Goodbye – Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
On My Mind – Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
Please Hold – K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse

None picked

Best Costume Design
Cruella – Jenny Beavan
Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
Dune – Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

Will win-Cruella
The Costume winner is usually the period piece or the one with the most color, which favors Cruella and its art-deco style. Should it triumph, the 71-year-old costume designer Jenny Beaven would take home her third trophy.

Will and should win-Cruella

Best Original Screenplay
Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
Don't Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
King Richard– Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Will win-Belfast
Branagh's film has a great deal of supporters and this may the only category where it finds a win.

Should and will win-Licorice Pizza
Then again Belfast offers just the type of mushy nostalgia that some Oscar voters would go for (It is kind of like the Family Classics version of Peaky Blinders), but with the new academy makeup (which supposedly leans a bit younger) it will not win. I think this may be where they will honor the film and Anderson who is universally respected. Too bad the other great Anderson (Wes) failed to get any nominations for The French Dispatch, but there is always next time.

Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA – Sian Heder; based on the film written by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg and Éric Lartigau
Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe; based on the story by Haruki Murakami
Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth; based on the novel by Frank Herbert
The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal; based on the novel by Elena Ferrante
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion; based on the novel by Thomas Savage

Will win-CODA
This could and should go to Jane Campion for Power of the Dog. But I think this will be part of the Coda surge of late.

Will win-CODA
The Lost Daughter also has a shot (Although it is less likely) because this is where they traditionally honor Indy films that don’t get other nominations.

Should win-Dune
Dune is more likely to get some of technical awards, but let’s not forget that that this film took a supposedly unadaptable film and created a work of art which will hold up for decades.

Best Original Score
Don't Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Dune – Hans Zimmer
Encanto – Germaine Franco
Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

Will win-Hans Zimmer, Dune
One thing you can't miss while watching Dune is Hans Zimmer's score. The main theme alone is worthy of an Oscar.

Will win-Hans Zimmer, Dune
This is the category that I am least certain of but I will go with Hans Zimmer who is one of the biggest names here because recognize ability counts.

Should win-Jonny Greenwood, the Power of the Dog
I have to admit I am a Radiohead freak, at one point I checked out from the library and listened to every CD they had done until that point. But even if he was not their guitarist I remember thinking that his soundtrack for Power of Dog was uncommonly evocative and effective.

Best Film Editing
Don't Look Up – Hank Corwin
Dune – Joe Walker
King Richard – Pamela Martin
The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras
Tick, Tick... Boom! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Will win-Dune
King Richard took this award at Ace Editing, which surprised me, given how subtle and natural its editing is: could voters really be moving away from splashier fare? Nah, it's probably just an aberration. The Oscar will go to Dune for its ambitious and stylized form.

None picked

Best Documentary – Feature
Ascension – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
Attica – Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) – Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
Writing with Fire – Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

Will win-Summer of Soul
To quote the Roots, Questlove’s Oscar has “got to be, got to be reality.” Don’t get me wrong, “Flee” is a singularly exquisite film, and this could indeed be close. But “Summer of Soul” might be the most universally adored film of the year. Both its uncovering of a lost Black history and its celebration of live performance were so profoundly suited to 2021. I can’t see it not winning.

Should and will win-Summer of Soul
I only saw Flee and Summer of Soul and I much preferred the latter. Although I don’t see why the Velvet Underground or Sparks docs were overlooked.

Best Production Design
Dune – Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
Nightmare Alley – Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
The Power of the Dog – Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
West Side Story – Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

Will win-Dune
The cinematic experience is composed of various elements but since cinema is a visual medium, production design plays a vital role. It seems like there can only be one winner for this year’s category because it has blown the competition out of the water. Dune has proven to be an unparalleled visual spectacle and its production design is second to none.

Will and should win-Dune
Production design gives the viewers a sense of time period, plot location as well as the character’s actions and feelings., in other words the overall aesthetic of the story. The one film that does all of this is Dune. But if I had a second choice it would be Nightmare Alley.

Best Original Song
"Be Alive" from King Richard– Music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
"Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto – Music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Down to Joy" from Belfast – Music and lyrics by Van Morrison
"No Time to Die" from No Time to Die – Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
"Somehow You Do" from Four Good Days – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren

Will win-Billy Eilsh and Finneas O'Connell, No Time to Die
We imagine Disney is kicking themselves for not submitting “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” in this category. Disney’s biggest musical hit since “Let It Go” is cleaning up on Billboard, but because the studio assumed a ballad was a better bet than this quirky ensemble number, they’ve cleared the way for Billie Eilish to win her first Oscar for the spookiest Bond song to date, “No Time to Die.”

Will win-Billy Eilsh and Finneas O'Connell, No Time to Die
Sure, she is not as popular as Jesus or John Lennon, but she is pretty damn popular, and a good documentary came out this year about her. Also, her song appearing in a Bond movie assures that huge numbers if not most of the Oscar voters have heard of her song, No Time to Die, and seen it used in a film. It also helps that the song and move share the same title.

Should win-I currently the Van Morrison song is better (the guy’s a rock master) but I have a hunch that his anti-Corvid statements and song won’t help his chances. I can’t decide.

Best Director
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Will win-Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog
Usually the best director winner also takes best picture. But I'm thinking this will be a rare split year. Campion has long been the frontrunner. For the trailblazing filmmaker, who nearly three decades ago became only the second woman nominated in this category, it’s a coronation long in coming. Campion, the first woman ever to be twice nominated for best director, will win. The big question may be, will she thank Sam Elliott?

Will win-Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, has the momentum and she would be a worthy choice. If she wins she will be the first female to win best director twice, and this film might be better and more significant than The Piano (I probably preferred her bio-pics her Angel at My Table and Bright Star over that films.)

Should win-Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
With all due respect this was Hamaguchi’s year and he made two superb films (Drive My Car and Wheels of Fortune and Fantasy). My backup or second choice would be Denis Villeneuve whose Dune was an astounding achievement that was much better then anyone had a right to expect, and I would never be unhappy if Paul Thomas Anderson won for any of his films.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos as Desi Arnaz
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog as Phil Burbank
Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom! as Jonathan Larson
Will Smith – King Richard as Richard Williams
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth as Lord Macbeth

Will win-Will Smith, King Richard
I’ll happily applaud a win for Will Smith, who’s terrific as the father driving his daughters to excellence in King Richard. But Cumberbatch towers above the rest of the field with his portrayal of the hardened shell of seething hatred concealing a shriveled pit of self-denial and yearning.

Will win-Will Smith, King Richard
He was fine and often delightful but his performance and his movie did not carry the weight of his fellow nominees.

Should win-Benedict Cumberbatch
Sure King Richard is a watchable, respectable feel good film, but Power of The Dog is a much more powerful and impactful and that also holds true of its lead performance. Smith’s turn is a good performance by one by a decent actor but Power of the Dog has one of the best performances by one of the best current actors. if you watch both King Richard and Power of the Dog one after another (they were playing back to back Oscar films at some theatres) I am sure Cumberbatch’s performance would leave Smith’s in the dust. Denzel Washington is Cumberbatch’s only real competition, and he has virtually no chance of winning. Although they were good Garfield and Bardem also have been virtually shut out.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

Will win-The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Though Dune and House of Gucci may be the popular favorites for this category, the work that went into Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye is difficult to ignore, making it our pick for this category.

Will and should win-Cruella
Emma Stone is utterly transformed into the most visually arresting character of the year plus it her image is the Disney computer icon for my niece, Delilah on Disney Plus. I think Tammy Baker is the only other one that has a shot.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye as Tammy Faye Bakker
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter as Leda Caruso
Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers as Janis Martínez Moreno
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos as Lucille Ball
Kristen Stewart – Spencer as Diana, Princess of Wales

Will win-Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
This has been the cruelest of categories, with some strong work. Yet, surprisingly, a very Oscar bait-y performance from a movie released early in the season — Jessica Chastain as the televangelist Tammy Faye — has moved to favorite status after winning the SAG Awards. That may partly be because Chastain, a three-time nominee but never a winner, is one of Hollywood’s best actors and the time has come to honor her, for a film she steered into existence. I think she’ll win, but Olivia Colman — typically brilliant in “The Lost Daughter” — could sneak in for her second Academy Award.

Will win-Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Tight race but Jessica Chastain who was almost unrecognizable and very convincing as Tammy Baker will take it. I have not seen Cruz’s performance yet but she is usually quite good and sometimes great, especially when she works with Almodóvar. In this case they are all worthy except Kristen Stewart should not win. Her performance was interesting but I never believed it was Jackie and she was much better in Personal Shopper.

Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Will Win-CODA
If I was asked as little as 2 weeks ago who I thought will take home the gold, I would have said Power of the Dog. I'm calling the “CODA” upset. The smart money is on Campion's film. But the win for “CODA” at the Screen Actors Guild — where “The Power of the Dog” failed to get nominated for best ensemble —and the recent PGA win suggests strong passion for the film, and maybe a crowd-pleasing advantage on the academy's preferential ballot. Either film, though, will symbolize the ascent of streaming in Hollywood. It would hand a streaming service — Netflix or Apple — Hollywood's most prestigious honor for the first time. Maybe that's a big deal, maybe it's belated confirmation of what everyone has known for some time.

Will win-The Power of the Dog
The Power of the Dog (unless there is a Coda upset) which is a very fine Netflix film will triumph. (The year’s other Netflix best pic film, Don’t Look Up was almost totally forgettable except for the nasty death scene with Meryl Streep which seemed like it belonged in another film.)

Should win-Dune or Licorice Pizza
Either Dune or (I would love to see the immensity of Villeneuve’s vision be rewarded here but I doubt it will happen) or Licorice Pizza. I know there might be more significant or ground-breaking films this year such as Drive My Car, but Licorice Pizza was the only film that transported me to another perhaps more hopeful era and it made me practically float out of the theatre.

-THE FINAL TALLY-

JR's total: 20 predictions out of 23 categories. 20 right

Vito's total: 18 predictions out of 23 categories. 14 right