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(020120) The 92nd Annual Academy
Awards (aka: Oscars) will be held on Sunday, February 9th
at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California,
and will be shown on ABC. The Academy continues the
tradition it began last year of televising the show
host-less (thank you Kevin Hart)
This marks our
14th Academy Awards predictions (see the links above for our
previous 13) and as in past years we invited our critics to weigh in with their predictions for this
years Oscar race and once again they rose to the task.
Back again is reviewer emeritus "Good Old JR" Jim Rutkowski.
He is again being joined by our newsman emeritus Larry "Bocepheus" Evans and
our art house critic "Big Tuna" Vito Carli
has also returned as well.
Each turned in their
reviews early and as always they are all thoughtfully done. Of the 24
principle categories this year (all listed below) none of our titanic trio of
critics tackled every single nomination, but all were given
the option. "None
picked" means the reviewer chose to skip that category for
whatever reason.
Out of the 24 categories there are
sixty-five
predictions by all three reviewers.
Vito logged in with 23 picks while JR and Bo both tackled 21
categories. I want to thank all three of our stalwart
cinephile's for taking the time to make and elucidate their picks.
A word on the format: If you are reading this before
February
9th the order of the nominations conforms to the order
awards were announced at the 2019 Oscar telecast. If this
years order deviates from last years, the appropriate
structural change to this list will be made after this years
telecast to conform with the 2020 broadcast. Beyond that
(and the final tally) no edits will be made to this list.
The linked film titles below are to reviews on this site for
the film being cited. The links themselves do not correspond
to the reviewers themselves but rather to the review located
on this site. The one exception is the
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
review which both JR and Vito tackled in 2019. Their reviews are combined into a
single "Review-A-Palooza" page.
Finally, because of the time constraints of your truly,
there will be no Oscar Picks Podcast by our critics this
year. Below are some of their previous efforts. Thanks again
gentlemen.
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EPISODE 97: OSCAR
PICKS 2019
(022119)
Our Picks for the 91st Annual Academy Awards |
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EPISODE 64: OSCAR
PICKS 2018
(022618)
Our Picks for the 90th Annual Academy Awards |
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EPISODE 36: OSCAR BAIT
(020317)
A discussion of and predictions for the 2017 Oscars
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Enjoy, good luck to all and pass the popcorn...
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 If
there’s one habit that distinguishes today’s Academy voters from those a
generation prior, it’s that they prefer to spread the wealth. The avalanche of
Oscars that fell into the arms of The English Patient, Titanic, and Return of
the King does not come around much anymore; in the 2010's, no movie ever won more
than "Gravity’s" seven. But this year, thanks to
voters concentrating their favor on a small handful of films, four different
contenders came away from nomination morning with the chance to score
double-digit trophies: "1917", "The Irishman",
"Joker", and
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood".
Of that quartet, "1917" seems likely to end up the night’s biggest winner, as the
film’s victories at the precursors have strengthened its Best Picture case, and
its myriad technical accomplishments should bolster its chances in the crafts
categories. A sweeping middlebrow epic with a British pedigree, "1917" can feel
like a slight throwback to an earlier Oscar era. A film that I found to be
middle of the road. More of a technical achievement, less involving as a
narrative. Will its awards haul also give us flashbacks to those ’90s
ceremonies?
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 Enjoy
the show |
 Enjoy
the show
You can read more of my writings at
www.artinterviews.org. |
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Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Brad Pitt,
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" |
 Brad Pitt,
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood", It may seem like an obvious
and safe prediction, but the Academy loves to give their
awards to the obvious and safe choice. In this case, that
choice is Brad Pitt. Yeah, yeah, he’s good in "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood", but we’re really all just hoping he shows
up to the Oscars with Jennifer Aniston as his date, right?
Kidding. The only potential for a surprise upset in this
category lies with Joe Pesci, who (thankfully) came out of
retirement to remind us all just how great of an actor he is
with "The Irishman". But really, the Oscars rarely surprise
us, so expect Pitt to give the acceptance speech.
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 My
pick:
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" Pesci and Pacino block each other out. Hopkins and
Hanks give great performances but this is Pitt’s hands down.
It’s a confident assured performance that to me was
astounding.
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 Will
win:
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Should win: Joe Pesci
Tough call here. Al of the nominees are worthy. I liked
Pesci (who is more restrained than usual) the best, but the
two "The Irishman" performances are both worthy (Pacino is
delightfully over the top) and the dual nominations will
probably split the vote, so Pitt who has never been better,
and was in a very popular and critically acclaimed film
will win.
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Best Original Screenplay
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"Parasite"
"Knives Out"
"1917"
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Once
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood", Like a responsible parent, Oscar
voters like to give their Best Picture picks enough love
that they feel appreciated, but not so much that they get
spoiled. Accordingly, in the modern era a movie that wins
the top prize also usually takes home Director or
Screenplay, but not both. "1917" feels much more a directing
achievement than a writing one, making this space the
perfect spot for voters to reward Once Upon a Time in
Hollywood.
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My
pick: This award could go to any of these nominees and I
would be happy but for sheer complication I am picking Rian
Johnson over Tarantino for the masterful mystery:
"Knives Out".
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Will
win: Once "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" is a cinema story which
will appeal to cinema lovers in the academy, and the area
Tarantino excels most in is screenplay writing (he is also a
fine director though).
"Marriage
Story" is also excellent and
has a shot in this category (its dialogue is true, realistic
true and hard hitting.)
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Best Adapted Screenplay
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes"
"Joker"
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"Little
Women", What director and screen writer do with "Little Women"
is transformative. By shuffling the narrative out of
sequence, we learn so much more about what motivates the
characters decisions. Also, the fast paced dialogue adds
comedic juice to every scene.
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My
pick: Zaillian for
"The Irishman". Phillips and Silver could win
here for
"Joker" but exactly what comic book arc was the film
based on?
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Will
and should win: "The Irishman" story masterfully takes us
through the lives of several generations of men which should
appeal to many Oscar voters which tend to be older. It is
also a superb piece of work. "Jojo
Rabbit"
had a marvelous,
weirdly appealing script but the ideas in the film were
better than the actual finished film.
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Best Live Action – Short
Film
"Brotherhood"
"Nefta Football Club"
"The Neighbors' Window"
"Saria"
"A Sister"
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None
picked |
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None
picked |
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None
picked |
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Best Documentary – Short
Subject
"In the Absence"
"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)"
"Life Overtakes Me"
"St. Louis Superman"
"Walk Run Cha-Cha"
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None
picked |
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None
picked |
Once
again, "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a
Girl)" has the best title and the most promising concept.
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Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell" |
Laura Dern,
The "Marriage
Story"
actress is utterly captivating to watch
in her role as Johansson’s divorce lawyer. She somehow
manages to simultaneously make us hate and love her,
disagree with her and, miraculously, totally understand her.
Dern’s Golden Globe win for Best Supporting Actress also
indicates that she likely holds a slight edge over her
competition—and it really is stiff competition. Pugh steals
the show (well, along with Gerwig’s un-nominated direction)
in Little Women, which also happens to star Dern. And Margot
Robbie delivers a strong performance in Bombshell. But Dern
is sure to take home the statuette—a well-deserved win for
an actress that has been doing great work for years.
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My
pick: Bombshell, Dern seems to be the favorite here but for some reason
I am picking Robbie for Bombshell.
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Will
Win: Margot Robie-She has momentum, and she even elevates
bad films ("Suicide Squad" comes to mind) and she has been on
a hot streak for years. I just love her work. Kathy Bates
was excellent She is always terrific in American Horror
Story), and she is very well respected, but the film she was
in was neither a huge box office or giant critical hit.
Laura Dern may have a better shot.
Should win: Of the performances that I saw, Florence Pugh
stood out the most, and if the film does not get rewarded in
other areas it might win in this category. But she is not
exactly a big name and she will probably have to wait.
Scarlett was fine in "Jojo
Rabbit", but she was far better in
"Marriage
Story", which was one of her career high points.
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Best Sound Editing
"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"Joker"
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"1917",
although the vroom vroom's of Ford v Ferrari are a
possibility for the pole position, never count out the war
movie. |
My
pick: "Joker",
this is a coin flip and
"Joker" won in the final round
but I would pick Ford vs. Ferrari if I was voting and since
I am not
"Joker" wins here.
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Should
and Will win: "1917", the army battle sounds stood out more
than the sounds from any other film.
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Best Sound Mixing
"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"Ad Astra"
"Joker"
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"1917",
it's a given. Whatever wins for best sound editing, takes
this trophy home as well.
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My
pick: It’s a
"Joker" night for the minor awards but
"1917" could
sneak a win here.
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Should
Win and will win: "1917", although this could be the one
category,
"Ad Astra" has a shot at. |
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Best Cinematography
"1917"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"The Lighthouse"
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"1917",
Roger Deakins had to wait decades before taking home his
first Oscar, finally winning two years ago for "Blade Runner:
2049." The wait for his second should be shorter. 1917’s
single-take conceit is its big creative showstopper, and
credit for that achievement will duly go to Deakins.
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My
pick: "1917", to me it’s a competition between cinematographer gods
when you have Deakins face off against Richardson. The other
three are just watching from the sidelines. "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" is
freaking gorgeous and the "1917" mixes light and shadow
depending on the location but there are no ties here and so
I will go with Deakins for "1917".
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Will
win: "1917"
Should win: "1917" or
"The Lighthouse". I am a bit biased but I
love Roger Deakins’ work (including "1917"), and he always
manages to give his films distinctive, memorable looks. He
has done some of his best work for Denis Villeneuve and the Coen brothers as well as “The Assassination of Jessie
James.” The only drawback is that he just recently got an
Oscar and they might want to spread the wealth around. My
backup pick would be Rodrigo Prieto who did great work on
"The Irishman" capturing the look of whatever photography was
big in the era they are depicting. The cinematography of
"The Lighthouse" (in glorious black and white) was probably the
most creative but the film and the camera work might have
been too experimental for the mostly middle brow Oscar
voters, plus it was not as widely seen as the other films.
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Best Original Score
"1917," Thomas Newman
"Joker," Hildur Guðnadóttir
"Little Women," Alexandre Desplat
"Marriage Story," Randy Newman
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker," John Williams
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"Joker": Hildur Guðnadóttir,
One of the few admirable elements of
"Joker" is its aurally
unusual score. It's too bad it wasn't used in a better film.
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My
pick: It’s nice to see Randy Newman doing scores again but I
am going with Newman for 1917.
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Will
and should win: John Williams is probably the best known
composer that was nominated.
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Best Original Song
"I'm Standing With You," "Breakthrough"
"Into the Unknown," "Frozen II"
"Stand Up," "Harriet"
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," "Rocketman"
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," "Toy Story 4"
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"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again": Rocketman,
Elton John wins an Oscar. The film itself is a better one
then the Freddie Mercury biopic. And this closing song will
take home some Academy love.
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Is
it me or are these some of the weakest song nominees ever?
None of these do anything for me and I am a huge Elton fan.
And so with great reluctance I am picking
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," "Rocketman".
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Will
and should win: I liked the Stand Up song from "Harriet" the
best because out of all the choices it sounds the least like
sonic wallpaper. The first two choices did not do anything
for me.
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Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
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Joaquin
Phoenix,
"Joker": He is going to win. It’s a strong
performance, but it’s not unlike any he’s ever given. He was
equally hypnotic and disturbing in “The Master” and “You
Were Never Really Here.” It’s no surprise. It’s on brand for
Phoenix, we’ve seen him do it before. His commitment to a
part is extraordinary.
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My
pick: We have another sure thing here with Phoenix walking
away with the statue for
"Joker" which means he and Heath
Ledger will have won Oscars for playing the same character.
The dark horse could be DiCaprio who gave an amazing
performance in "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood".
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Will
win: Phoenix is a superb actor and he was marvelous in
"Joker"
(although not as good as Ledger’s take on the character),
but he was just as good or better in Many other movies (like
"You Were Never Really Here".) DiCaprio also has a shot if
there is a comic film shutout. I think Phoenix will get the
award for his whole career. He is a marvelous actor, and he
definitely is Oscar worthy (he was already nominated four
times) and I hope he eventually wins, but not for this film,
Should win: Adam Driver (like Ronan and Robie) is on a
winning streak, and his portrayal of a decent, but flawed
husband with an unraveling marriage in "Marriage
Story"
really
shows what he can do. But the most daring, edgy and
unforgettable performance (Adam Sandler in "Uncut Jewels") was
not even nominated. He was probably overlooked because he
made too many bad films.
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Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
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Renée Zellweger,
"Judy": OK, to say this is a stacked category would be an
understatement. But this award is definitely Zellweger’s to
lose. Her performance as Judy Garland in "Judy" was
transformative. Some might make the same argument about Charlize Theron’s portrayal of Megyn Kelly in
"Bombshell", but
did Theron also sing?! Not to mention, we’ve already awarded
Theron for being totally unrecognizable in a role (remember
"Monster"?). Zellweger’s performance in this biopic has
everything that the Oscars look for: drama, tears and the
portrayal of a deeply flawed musical icon (Rami Malek in "Bohemian Rhapsody,"
anyone?).
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My
pick: The odds seem to favor Zellweger for Judy but it drew
no box office and she was supposedly the best thing in the
film. Ronan is well liked; Erivo is great but too young;
Theron could win but I think this award goes to Johansson
for "Marriage
Story".
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Will
win: Judy is the least worthy selection, although Zellweger
was fine; but I am going with it because it won the Golden
Globe, which is a decent Oscar predictor.
Should win: Ronan was absolutely brilliant in "Little Women",
and two other recent pictures (Brooklyn and Ladybird) but
the academy sometimes tends to disproportionately honor old
timers (what else could explain Streep’s recent nom's for
mediocre performances.)
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Best Director
Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Bong Joon-ho, "Parasite"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Todd Phillips, "Joker"
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Sam
Mendes, 1917, Picture-director splits are more common in the
era of the preferential ballot, and with "Parasite" thriving,
Bong Joon Ho has become a popular Best Director pick,
especially as his film’s likely win in Best International
Feature should put a damper on its Best Picture chances.
Even so, Mendes got a big boost with his win at the DGAs, as
the two directing prizes have only diverged three times in
the past 20 years. Consider 1917 to have the edge in this
race, too.
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My
pick: Mendes has already won the Directors Guild award so
he’s a foregone conclusion. His winning is a lock since the
Oscars always go with the DGA winner. There was some
controversy here over Greta Gerwig not getting a nomination
for "Little Women" but when you pick 9 Best Films then 4
directors aren’t going to get the nod.
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Will
win- Tarantino. Well, it is a pretty close race, but
Scorsese’s epic reputation and the film’s status as one of
his best films in years could win the day, But Tarantino is
immensely popular and he did make a great Hollywood film so
he gets the slight nod. God I hope it is not The
"Joker" (it
would be a crime if it won after "Dark Knight" was rejected).
Phillips should not have even been nominated.
Should win: Both Scorsese and Joon-ho did work which was
perhaps more ground breaking, but the academy usually does
not usually honor the most ground breaking films.
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Best Picture
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The
Irishman"
"Jojo
Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Once
Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
"Marriage
Story"
"Parasite"
"1917"
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"1917"
has won at the Golden Globes. It has won at the Producers
Guild Awards, which are determined by the same kind of
preferential ballot as the Oscars. It has won at the
Directors Guild Awards, which are chosen by the industry’s
most discerning artistes. With the exception of its SAG
snub, it’s won everywhere, from everyone. In a season where
momentum is paramount, "1917"
looks like the one to beat. It's win wouldn't be the debacle
that last years "Green Book" was. But "1917"
is certainly not the best film of the year. However, if "Parasite" should sneak in under the wire, listen
for a delighted yell in the distance. That will be me.
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My
pick: Okay with Mendes winning Director the way it usually
goes is the film he/she directs gets Best Picture but there
have been cases in which it hasn’t and I think that will be
the case here. "Parasite"
is winning in the foreign film
category; "Jojo
Rabbit"
is too quirky; "Ford vs. Ferrari" lingered in
theaters for longer than expected; no on "Little Women";
"Marriage Story" and "The
Irishman" are Netflix films. So that
leaves in my opinion, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" and
"Joker". Hollywood is the
easy bet but I have a feeling
"Joker" could steal a win here.
But the monkey wrench in all this is the Producers Guild
Award which went to "1917" so against all odds since it’s not
a major draw "1917" will get the statue.
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Will
win: "Jojo
Rabbit"
is too controversial and quirky, so it
won’t win. Comic related films and foreign films don’t win
best picture, so
"Joker" and Parasite are out. Scorsese
probably alienated some younger academy voters and Hollywood
insiders with his dismissal of comic films so he might not
get in. "1917" is the type of solid and substantial middle
brow film that does not rock the boat too much that the
academy usually goes for and it won a Golden Globe so it
will blast through to victory.
Should win: I am going with "The Irishman" but then again I am
a Scorsese fanatic. To me he is the greatest living film
maker in American and David Lynch is his only competition.
But I would also be positively delighted if "Parasite" won.
The rest of the nominees are not in the same league and
don’t even come close to that level of quality, but then
again I did not see "Ford vs. Ferrari".
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