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OSCAR PREDICTIONS-2014
2018,
2017,
2016,
2015,
2014,
2013,
2011,
2010,
2009,
2008,
2007,
2006 |
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2014 ACADEMY AWARDS |
OSCAR PREDICTIONS
by:
-Larry "Bocepheus" Evans
-Jim "Good Old JR" Rutkowski
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The 2014 Academy Awards are coming up and our
two media opinion makers "BO" & "JR" have their predictions all set for Oscar Night.
How close will they be? We'll find out on Sunday MARCH 2nd.
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 BO-This
year’s Oscars will be hosted by comedian Ellen Degeneres who is a safe choice
and will do a fine job but there aren’t likely to be any shocking moments. The
Academy actually did a fine job here as well with the nominees but there were some
amazing performances that didn’t make the cut. This was however a wonderful year
for films with most of the films chosen from the latter part of the year. |
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 JR-This
is one of the better years for Oscar. I've seen eight of the nine best picture
nominees and there isn't a bad film in the group. For the second year in a row,
the awards for film and director will be split. Amazingly this has only happened
a handful of times in the entire history of Oscar. Yet here we are having the
same result two years concurrently. Last year I gave my picks for who will win,
and who should win. This year I'm keeping it to just who will win. Although, in
a few of my notes, I couldn't help but make a comment or two. On with the show. |
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BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
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Barkhad Abdi (Captain
Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The
Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) |
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JR-Jared Leto had dropped out of acting and had no immediate interest
in returning until his costar McConaughey convinced him to take a chance with
this role. If they both win, it would be only the fourth time that two actors
from the same film won. |
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BO-In this category the Academy can go with the safe
choice or the realistic one. Leto has already won the Golden Globe and since
they have seen him grow up in Hollywood they can turn their brains off and make
him the winner. Leto is the safe choice and the political one as well but
Fassbinder electrifies the screen in every scene he is in and is the realistic
choice. Hill is good in Wall Street but was better in Moneyball and should have
won then. Cooper and Abdi will win someday but not here. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) |
| 2014 WINNER: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) |
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BEST MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING |
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Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha
Lee, Robin Mathews)
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)
The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny) |
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JR-Dallas Buyers Club by default. Why? Will the Academy give an
Oscar to a movie with Jackass in the title? I think not. Does wearing Kiss
makeup and a stuffed bird on your head warrant an award? Not a chance. |
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BO-My question is: three nominees? One of the best
parts of American Hustle was the hair styles but it doesn’t make the cut? The
obvious winner is Dallas Buyers Club since the other films are a joke. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews) |
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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
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The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine
Belson)
Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri)
Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner)
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio) |
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JR-Right up front, I have to say Disney's Frozen would not be my choice.
Veteran Japanese film maker Miyazaki's The Wind Rises easily trumps all the
other nominees. But I'm not the one handing out the awards. Frozen is a
huge worldwide mega hit. It also harkens back to the glory days of Disney during
the Lion King era. It's jaunty, at times funny and has some decent songs. I
suppose that is enough to take home the gold in this case |
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BO-There isn’t much of a debate here since Frozen
has steam rolled thru the animated ranks and is going to turn into a Broadway
musical. This is the Academy, however, so Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises is a dark
horse candidate. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho) |
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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
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Gravity
(Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon,
David Clayton, Eric Reynolds)
Iron Man 3 (Christopher Townsend, Guy
Williams, Erik Nash, Dan Sudick)
The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, John Frazier)
Star Trek
Into Darkness (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann, Burt
Dalton) |
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JR-For me, there no other nominees in this category. The first 15
minutes of Gravity are enough to take the prize. Not only are the visual effects
completely convincing. But they show a grace and almost ballet like creativity.
The type of joyous work that rarely comes out of a major studio. |
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BO-Of the five nominees here only two have an actual
chance. The Lord of the Rings franchise has won enough and Hobbit has had more
detractors than supporters. You would think the film that made more than
anything would win so Iron Man 3 should have its name on the statue but as I
have said this will be a Gravity night. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Gravity
(Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould) |
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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
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The Act of Killing (Joshua
Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher)
Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill)
The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer)
20 Feet From Stardom (Nominees to be determined) |
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JR-I guarantee that you have seen nothing like this doc. No doubt
this is a difficult film to watch and accept. But it shines a light on the
sobering nature of inhumanity and lack of even the basics of morality. If there
was ever evidence to the old adage that history is written by the victors, it's
The Act of Killing. |
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BO-I haven’t seen any of the nominees so no pick
here. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: None |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen) |
| 2014 WINNER: 20 Feet
From Stardom (Nominees to be determined) |
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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
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The Broken Circle Breakdown
(Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine) |
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JR-The Great Beauty is not only the most visually opulent of the films in this
category, but the one that emulates one of world cinemas grand masters: Frederico Fellini. |
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BO-I haven’t seen any of the nominees so no pick
here. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: None |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
The Great Beauty (Italy) |
| 2014 WINNER: The Great Beauty (Italy) |
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BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
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Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska) |
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JR-This was the performance in 12 Years that came out of nowhere.
Overpowering the lead actor Chiwetel Ejiofor. Lupita Nyong'o does work here that is as
raw and unforgettable. She is new to the movie scene but if this is any
indication of things to come, then this will not be her last awards ceremony. |
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BO-There are five nominees here and three don’t have
a chance in hell of winning. Hawkins, Squibb and Roberts are just filling out
the category so it comes down to Lawrence and Nyong’o. Lawrence was better last
year in Silver Linings Playbook and is the weakest part of Hustle so our winner
is Nyong’o. Her performance matches her fellow actors in Slave and for most this
is the first time anyone has seen her. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) |
| 2014 WINNER: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) |
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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
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The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
Gravity
(Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins) |
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JR-Another killer category. All of the nominees display
tremendous visual style. Black and white cinematography is represented in
Nebraska and Llewyn Davis. But for sheer lyrical beauty, Gravity is aces.
Lubezki runs the gamut from the immensity and loneliness of space to the
intimacy inside of a helmet. Gorgeous work. |
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BO-All five films in this category look amazing but
the winner is Lubezki for the stunning Gravity. You could make a case for all of
them especially Deakins’ work in the underrated Prisoners but Gravity takes the
gold here. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Emmanuel Lubezki) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Emmanuel Lubezki) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Gravity
(Emmanuel Lubezki) |
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BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE:
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The Book Thief (John Williams)
Gravity
(Steven Price)
Her
(William Butler, Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
Saving Mr.Banks (Thomas Newman) |
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JR-One of the rare years that John Williams will not win. Steven
Price composed a score for Gravity that never crosses into the overtly obvious.
His score is minimalist and effective. |
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BO-My rule of thumb has never been “if you leave the
film and don’t remember the score then it’s a good score.” Yes, the score is
supposed to be complimentary but you do need to notice it. Steven Price seems
like the winner here for Gravity but the score for Her from Butler and Pallett
was excellent. John Williams could sneak in here just because he’s John
Williams. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Steven Price) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Steven Price) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Gravity
(Steven Price) |
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BEST
ORIGINAL SONG:
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Happy (Despicable Me 2)
Let It Go (Frozen)
The Moon Song (Her)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) |
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JR-Let It Go from Disney's marketing juggernaut Frozen |
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BO-Four songs here and only one got played on the
radio-U2’s Ordinary Love. Guess what the winner will be? |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Let It Go (Frozen) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Let It Go (Frozen) |
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
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Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips
(Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The
Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) |
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JR-I'm pulling for Before Midnight to take this category.
However, it's going to 12 Years a Slave. Taking a memoir and translating it to
the screen is difficult work. But the screenplay is raw, powerful and artfully
done. |
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BO-Terrence Winter has a good shot at the award here
for Wolf of Wall Street but John Ridley had this award the moment 12 Years a
Slave came out. Billy Ray would have been a good pick here but Captain Phillips
seemed to have gotten lost in the shuffle. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) |
| 2014 WINNER:
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) |
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BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
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American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her
(Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson) |
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JR-It's possible that the screenplay for Her by Spike Jonze could
take this and for me, that would just dandy. But ultimately, this will be one of
the few wins for American Hustle. But good work it is. The screenplay is light
on it's feet but also subtle and understated. |
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BO-There is a quirk here involving American Hustle
since it was based on a real story but not all the characters in the film were
real people. That quirk will not stop the Academy from giving the statue to Eric
Warren Singer and David O. Russell since it is the obvious winner. The dark
horse is Spike Jonze’s Her which is the most original idea but Hustle has to win
something. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer,
David O. Russell) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Her
(Spike Jonze) |
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BEST DIRECTOR:
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American Hustle (David O.
Russell)
Gravity
(Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The
Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) |
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JR-Alfonso Cuarón brings his unique sense of emotional intimacy to what
is a huge Hollywood blockbuster. His work here is astounding in the balancing
act of visual splendor and allegory. |
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BO-The tradition has always for the winner of the
Directors Guild of America award to win the Oscar as well. The only time there
are changes is if the director isn’t nominated which can happen when up to 10
films can be nominated. Cuaron has won the DGA award so do you think the Academy
is going to break the string here? I don’t think so but if it was up to me the
statue would go to McQueen. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Alfonso Cuarón) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity
(Alfonso Cuarón) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Gravity
(Alfonso Cuarón) |
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BEST ACTRESS:
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Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) |
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JR-This is a powerhouse category. All the nominated performances
are amazingly strong. But time and again Cate Blanchett proves why she is among
the finest actors of her generation. As Jasmine she expertly walks a tightrope
of pathos and comedy as a character that is all at once clueless, self-absorbed,
unwitting and pitiable. In lesser hands this could have been embarrassing. |
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BO- A wonderful collection of talent here as
well but two are knocked out of the box-Dench and Streep. Both performances are
good but these two have enough gold on their mantles. Bullock is wonderful in
Gravity as is Adams in Hustle but neither give us a performance as good as
Blanchett in Jasmine. Some have theorized that the recent dredging up of Woody
Allen’s legal issues will hurt her chances but I don’t think so. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) |
| 2014 WINNER: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) |
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BEST ACTOR:
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Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The
Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) |
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JR-This has been quite a year for
Matthew McConaughey. With starring
roles in this film as well as Mud, Wolf of Wall Street and HBO's True Detective
he has cemented his reputation as not only a hard worker but an actor that's
unafraid of taking on a huge variety of roles that aren't always in his comfort
zone. |
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BO-Here we have a marvelous collection of actors who
have consistently given wonderful performances. Bruce Dern has been around for a
long time which makes him the sentimental favorite here but most of his early
performances were playing villains and nutcases so I can’t see him getting the
statue here. DiCaprio is a safe choice here and he is great in Wall Street but
he has done better. Bale is wonderful in Hustle but he isn’t going to get the
statue and neither is McConaughey so that leaves my winner Ejiofor who steals
the screen in 12 Years a Slave. The only other obvious winner in this category
is the man who didn’t get nominated: Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers
Club) |
| 2014 WINNER:
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) |
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BEST PICTURE:
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American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The
Wolf of Wall Street |
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JR-This is the second year in a row that will see a split between
best director and best picture. I've been getting the sense that there might be
a last minute push for Gravity to take the big prize. But I'm banking the more
serious minded
12 Years a Slave will win. It's deserving of it. McQueen's film is a sobering
story and one that avoids the usual overly emotional traps of telling this type
of tale. Personally I would not be at all unhappy if Gravity won. It would also
be the first science fiction film to win a best picture Oscar. |
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BO-This year there are no obvious misses which you
think would make picking the winner easier but that is not the case. The smaller
films such as Nebraska and Philomena don’t have a chance but 12 Years a Slave
does. My choice for the best film of the year is Her but it isn’t going to win.
12 Years was number two and should win but if Cuaron wins best director since he
has already won the Directors Guild award then Gravity will take the statue. It
is a damn good film but doesn’t have the emotional impact that Slave did.. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Gravity |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
12 Years a Slave |
| 2014 WINNER:
12 Years a Slave |
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FINAL TALLEY:
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BO PICKED: 10 out of 16 |
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JR PICKED: 14 out of 16 |
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CLEAN MISSES BY BOTH: 2 |
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OSCAR © Copyright 2014 Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. No right given or implied by Alternate Reality, Incorporated.
Article © 2014 Alternate Reality, Inc.
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