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 (042321) The 93rd Annual Academy
Awards (aka: Oscars) will be held on Sunday, April 25th
at the Los Angeles Union Station in Los Angeles, California,
and will be shown on ABC. If this years awards seem to be
coming a little later that usual-they are. The Academy
pushed back their original ceremony from February 28 to
April due to Covid-19 and its impact on the film industry
over the last year. This marks the fourth time the Awards
have been pushed back in the Academy's ninety-three year
history. Because of this, the eligibility window for this
years awards was lengthened allowing for more films to be in
contention. Additionally, the previously philosophical
argument of streaming vs theatrical presentation being the
determining factor for nomination eligibility has been
rendered moot. The reality of the last 12 months has forced
the issue and this year streaming releases carry just as
much weight for contention as their theatrical counterparts.
If streaming releases were again excluded one assumes there
wouldn't have been much in the way of Awards to be given
out.
The Academy continues the
tradition it began two years ago of televising the show
"host-less" (again, thank you Kevin Hart). Instead there will
be a rotating "ensemble" cast of 15 presenters this year.
The ceremony itself being delivered in a "film style"
presentation-we'll see what that means Sunday night.
This marks our
15th Academy Awards predictions (see the links above for our
previous 14) and as in past years we invited our critics to weigh in with their predictions for this
years Oscar race and once again they rose to the task.
Back again is reviewer emeritus "Good Old JR" Jim Rutkowski
and he is again being joined "Big Tuna" Vito Carli.
Each turned in their
picks early and as always they are all thoughtfully done. Of the 23
principle categories this year (all listed below) neither
has tackled every single nomination, but all were given
the option. "None
picked" means the reviewer chose to skip that category for
whatever reason.
Out of the 23 categories there are
thirty-seven
predictions by both reviewers.
Vito logged in with 18 picks while JR tackled 19
categories. I want to thank both of our stalwart cinephile's for taking the time to make and
in many cases elucidate their picks.
A word on the format: If you are reading this before
April 25th the order of the nominations conforms to the order
awards were announced at the 2020 Oscar telecast. If this
years order deviates from last years, the appropriate
structural change to this list will be made after this years
telecast to conform with the 2021 broadcast. Beyond that
(and the final tally) no edits will be made to this list.
The linked film titles below are to reviews on this site for
the film being cited. The links themselves do not correspond
to the reviewers themselves but rather to the review located
on this site.
Thanks again
gentlemen.
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Enjoy, good luck to all and pass the popcorn...
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 This
year’s Oscar race is unlike any before, and that’s kind of exciting. The dearth
of blockbusters plus the eligibility of all streaming titles has, in a way,
opened the floodgates this Oscar season for a number of different kinds of films
to break into the awards race. Major titles were pushed to 2021, making more
room for not just smaller but more intimate stories – told by burgeoning
filmmakers – to shine in the spotlight.
There's certainly reflected in this year's eight Best Picture nominees, which
are almost all small-scale, character-centric pieces. The two "biggest" movies
from a pure budget perspective are "Mank" and "The Trial of the Chicago 7", and even
then those are dramas and not spectacle films.
A couple of major things are different about the 2021 Oscars in the wake of the
pandemic. For one, films released in 2020 were eligible regardless of whether
they received a theatrical release or not, because major theaters were closed
for much of the year. Additionally, the deadline to have your film released and
still be eligible for the Oscars was extended from December 31st to February 28,
2021, which is how "Judas" and the "Black Messiah" scored a nomination despite being
released in January.
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 I don’t know if it is strictly because
of Covid but most of the directors that are usually considered cinematic giants
(Scorsese, Spielberg, Tarantino and the Andersons etcetera) whose films are
usually guaranteed to earn at least some nominations were missing in action this
year. Alas, we will have to wait until next year for Scorsese’s "Killers of the
Flower Moon" and Spielberg’s "West Side Story".
This year did see the release of films
by two cinematic masters on Netflix: Spike Lee
("Da 5 Bloods”)
and David
Lynch (his short "What Did Jack Do?" just missed my top ten), Paul Greengrass
("News of the World")
and Dave Fincher
("Mank")
also returned to do substantial works,
but only Fincher’s flick was awarded with multiple Oscar nom's.
On the bright side there was an
unprecedented amount of strong Indy films and mainstream hits that were directed
by exciting brand new female or minority (or both) directors such as Lee Isaac
Chung (“Minari”), Shaka King ("Judas and the Black Messiah"), Emerald Fenell
(“Promising Young Woman”), and Cloe Zhao (“Nomadland”). We will have to see if
they end up having the staying power of a Hitchcock or if they disappear like
Charles Laughton or Richard Kelly (Both directed only one great film.)
Incredibly all except King earned best
director nominations and for the first time ever two women got nominated for
best director. The 60s really did not arrive until around 1964, but perhaps the
2020s are arriving early.
Let me preface my picks with this prediction: I will get more Oscar predictions
correct this year (I got them all wrong last year.)
You can read more of my writings at
www.artinterviews.org. |
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Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen,
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr.,
“One Night in Miami...”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
LaKeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
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 Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
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Will win: Sacha Baron Cohen,
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Should Win:
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
I have not seen several of the nominees. My hunch is that
"Judas" multiple nom’s will split the votes so Cohen may win,
although Kaluya arguably had a bigger and more substantial
role. Baron is great too though. |
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Best Animated Feature Film
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Soul”
"Wolfwalkers”
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"Soul".
I would love to see Wolfwalkers win. But Pixar has a
stranglehold on Oscar. Not that I dislike Soul. It's
captivating. But Wolfwalkers seems vibrant and fresh. |
Will
win: "Soul"
Should win:
"Wolfwalkers”
"Soul" has great word of mouth, tremendous popularity,
critical acclaim and it was made by Disney so it will win. I
prefer Asian animation to Disney style cartoons so I will go
with "Wolfwalkers" for should win. |
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Best Animated Short Film
“Burrow”
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
“Opera”
“Yes-People”
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None
picked
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None
picked
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Best Original Screenplay
“Judas and the Black
Messiah”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
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"The
Trial of the Chicago 7"
More love for Sorkin. |
Will
Win:
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Should win:
“Promising Young Woman”
Will Win: All good choices, but my hunch is Trial of the
Chicago 7 will win because the best aspect of it is
the script. If Trial loses, the second most likely one to
win is Minari. It reminds me of past Oscar old nom's like
Country and Places in the Heart, and its story is populated
by sympathetic and likeable characters (except the mom).
Also, in a year in which Asians are being harassed perhaps
the voters will have Asian related issues on their mind.
Should Win: I thought that "Promising Young Woman" and "Judas"
were the bravest and most timely stories that appeared all
year. I am narrowly going with the ultimate MeToo era film,
"Promising". |
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Best Live Action – Short
Film
"Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”
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None
picked |
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None
picked |
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Best Production Design
“The Father”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Tenet”
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"Mank" |
Should
and will Win:
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and
"Mank" both effectively
transported us to the past, but my choice is "Mank" by a
narrow margin. The best aspects of the film are its look and
setting.
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Best Costume Design
“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Mulan”
“Pinocchio”
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"Ma
Rainey's Black Bottom"
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Should
and will win:
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”. Maybe I just think it just
deserves something, but I visually conjured up the elegant
costumes from the film in my mind as I read through the
list. |
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Best Documentary – Feature
"Collective”
“Crip Camp”
“The Mole Agent”
“My Octopus Teacher”
“Time”
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"Time" |
Will
and should win:
"Collective”
I love, love, love "My Octopus Teacher" but my hunch is that a
film about bureaucratic incompetence will resonate with
Oscar voters in the year of Covid, plus "Collective" is also
nominated for best foreign language film, but if it gets
overlooked because of "Minari" then it may win here. Damn good
film too. |
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Best Documentary – Short
Subject
“Colette”
“A Concerto Is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
“A Love Song for Latasha”
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None
picked |
None
picked
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Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova,
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Yuh-Jung Youn,
“Minari”
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Yuh-Jung
Youn, "Minari"
Another category that is a close call. Olivia Coleman
could take this too. |
Will
and should win: I know Glenn Close is widely respected, but
her performance was lukewarm and he film was a dud. Maria is
not well known and Oscar voters are unlikely to reward a
foreign newcomer doing a comic performance (Although some
pundits favor her). That leaves Youn and Seyfried both of
which are worthy and have a shot. I am going to go with
Seyfried because she was an unexpected delight in "Mank"
playing a character loosely based on William Randoph Heart’s
wife plus she steals every scene she is in.
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Best Sound
(Best Sound Mixing + Best Sound Editing
combined into one Award starting this year)
"Greyhound" – Beau Borders, Michael Minkler, Warren
Shaw and David Wyman
"Mank" – Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod, Nathan Nance
and David Parker
"News of the World" – William Miller, John Pritchett, Mike
Prestwood Smith and Oliver Tarney
"Soul" – Coya Elliot, Ren Klyce and David Parker
"Sound of Metal" – Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés and Michelle Couttolenc
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"Sound
of Metal"
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None
picked |
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Best Cinematography
“Judas and the Black
Messiah”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Nomadland”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
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"Mank" |
Will
and should win: "Mank " has some of the most gorgeous black
and white photography I have ever seen. It should win unless
there is a "Nomadland" sweep.
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Best Film Editing
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
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"The
Trial of the Chicago 7" |
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Will
and should win: I am picking "The Father" for a weird
reason. They way the film is put together going seamlessly
from scene to scene makes the main character’s confusion of
the past and present that much more disturbing. |
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Best Visual Effects
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“The One and Only Ivan”
“Tenet”
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"Tenet"
This is a category that barely resembles previous years.
Without any blockbusters released in 2020 it seems sparse. |
None
picked
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Emma”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”
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"Ma
Rainey's Black Bottom"
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Should
and will win:
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” for the great period look. |
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Best Foreign Language/International Film
“Another Round”
(Denmark)
“Better Days” (Hong Kong)
“Collective” (Romania)
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
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"Another
Round" |
Will
win: "Another Round"
Should win: "Collective"
Both "Collective" and "Another Round" are worthy films that got
other nominations and either could win, but since "Another
Round" also got nominated for a major category, best
director, I feel it has the edge, although "Collective" is the
better overall film. |
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Best Original Score
"Da 5 Bloods”
“Mank”
"Minari”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
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Soul
Reznor and Ross competing with themselves. I don't believe
they'll cancel themselves out. |
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Will
and should win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are widely
respected and have been on a roll lately and they also got
in the Rock Hall of Fame last year (as Nine Inch Nails).
Also, their score for "Soul" is evocative, effective and
original. They will win. If they lose, there is always the
dependable Terrance Blanchard (who I once met him at a
Borders) who is a phenomenal jazz composer and he has
already been nominated several times. His score for "Da Five
Bloods" has a fairly good chance winning for his score for
that films’ only nomination (in my opinion this was the most
robbed film this year.) |
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Best Original Song
“Fight for You” from “Judas and the Black
Messiah”
“Hear My Voice” from
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
“Husavik” from
“Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire
Saga”
“Io Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
“Speak Now” from
“One Night in Miami...”
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Speak
Now from "One Night in Miami"
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Will
and should win: Well "Eurovision" is a music film and the whole thing is about music, so it will
win. H.E.R. also has a shot and she is extremely popular
with young audiences, but less so with old fogies like most
of the Oscar voters. |
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Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun,
“Minari”
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Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
There will be those that say this will be given due
to the untimely death of Boseman. I would argue that Boseman
had a career year in 2020. Not only with this movie but also
his performance in "Da 5 Bloods" (a film that deserves to be
in the running for best film). |
Will
win: Boseman gave a blisteringly powerful performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” plus he won the SAG award, and his death should make
him a sentimental favorite and front runner.
Should win:
While Boseman was great, he was part of an ensemble cast (I
might agree that he should get a best supporting actor
performance)
Hopkins completely carries "The Father". It is basically an
acting showcase for him. |
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Best Actress
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand,
“Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan,
“Promising Young Woman”
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Carey
Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"
This is the category that is the biggest horse
race of the ceremony. It's a 3 way dead heat. Viola Davis
and Andra Day could also take the gold. |
Will
win: McDormand is beloved by the Academy, is respected by
the whole industry, and I think it is hers to lose. But if
she wins it will be for her whole career. Davis would be my
second choice if McDormand loses.
Should win: Carey Mulligan
gave the darkest, edgiest and most dangerous performance in
“Promising Young Woman", but Oscar voters don’t usually
reward edgy.
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Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung,
“Minari”
Emerald Fennell,
“Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
Chloé Zhao,
“Nomadland”
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Chloe
Zhao Zhao made my favorite film of a few years ago called
"The Rider". "Nomadland" cements her as a major talent. |
Will
win: Although "Mank" got 10 nominations, I don’t think it has
the momentum to win any major ones. Although the director’s
part of the academy usually makes smarter choices than the
rest of the academy, Foreign directors don’t generally win
without any other major nominations. Lee Isacc and Emerald
Fennell seem like they have less momentum even though
Fennell’s film came out at the right time and is my runner
up choice. But the director’s guild gave it to Zhao and she
also won a Golden Globe, and I think she will win here too.
Should win: I saw everything except for "Nomadland", but of
the rest, although "Minari" affected me the most emotionally,
"Promising Young Woman" was the one I kept thinking about and
kept comparing to the other films. I was haunted by
it.
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Best Picture
“The Father”
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
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"Nomadland"
Not only does it have several awards under its belt already,
but it's certainly the best film I've seen this year. |
Will
Win, ”Nomadland’ has it all but sewn up. If any other film
wins it will be an upset. Judas would be my dark horse
second choice.
Should win: "Mank" definitely deserves to win
in some of visual or supporting categories, but it is not a
full fledged timeless masterpiece, just a very good stylish
biopic. "The Father" has a great script and lead performance,
but it is only a three star film. I did not see "Nomadland"
yet, so I am going to go with "Promising Young Woman" which
was the strongest and most surprising of the choices (Judas
was the only film that came close.)
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-THE FINAL TALLY- |
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JR's
total: 19 predictions out of 23 categories. 11 right |
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Vito's
total: 18 predictions out of 23 categories. 8 right |
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