 |
|
|
OSCAR PREDICTIONS-2007
2018,
2017,
2016,
2015,
2014,
2013,
2011,
2010,
2009,
2008,
2007,
2006 |
 |
The Academy Awards are coming up and our
two opinion makers "JR" & "Bo" have their predictions all set for Oscar Night.
How close will they be? |
 |
|
 JR'S
PROLOGUE-It’s Academy Award time and every critic on
the planet is weighing in with their predictions. Far be it from me to buck
tradition, so allow me to post up with my own prognostications. This is one of
those very rare years where the Academy has chosen worthy films. There isn’t
much fat in the list. Here’s how this will work: I’ll give you the nominees and
then my predictions as to who I think will win as well as who I believe should
win. Interestingly enough, in most of the categories both are a match. Then,
maybe a random note about any shortcomings in that category. Keep in mind that
as this article is written in the first week of February, 2007 momentum can
shift dramatically between now and voting time. But this is how I see it going. |
|
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza in “BABEL” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)
Abigail Breslin in “LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE ” (Fox Searchlight)
Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Rinko Kikuchi in “BABEL” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
JR-Jennifer Hudson of DREAMGIRLS Will win. It’s a nice piece of work that is
helped tremendously by a fine singing voice. But not the best performance in the
category. Rinko Kikuchi of “BABEL” should win. This performance is all the more
remarkable in that it is from a relative newcomer. Kikuchi has only made a
handful of films in her native Japan. This is her first American role and it is
a heartbreaking and unforgettable one.
BO-Jennifer Hudson may win for Dreamgirls, Cate Blanchett has a shot for Notes
on a Scandal, Abigail Breslin (“LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE”) is just there for kicks and
grins, between Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi for “BABEL” Kikuchi kicks ass and
to me should win. But I don’t have a vote so Hudson may get the award. I wonder
why Vera Famiglia wasn’t nominated for “the
DEPARTED” since she was perfect as the
woman caught between Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio.
|
|
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin in
“LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE” (Fox Searchlight)
Jackie Earle Haley in “Little Children” (New Line)
Djimon Hounsou in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Mark Wahlberg in “the
DEPARTED” (Warner Bros.)
JR-Eddie Murphy of DREAMGIRLS Will win. Smart money is on Murphy and it is the
best work he’s ever done. But if it’s me marking the ballot…..Mark Wahlberg of
“the
DEPARTED” Should win. Markie Mark has got the chops here. Edgy, tough
performance that got under my skin.
BO-Eddie Murphy is the front runner but the rest of the nominees are just as
good and they aren’t doing an impression of James Brown. I am tired of actors
imitating real people and getting awards for it so I would hope the award goes
to someone like Mark Wahlberg (“the
DEPARTED” and why he got the pick over Jack
Nicholson may have to do with he was damn funny whenever he was on screen) or Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond (who was his generally intense self). But Eddie
is likely to win and then never do anything challenging again.
|
|
ACTRESS:
Penélope Cruz in “Volver” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Judi Dench in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)
Helen Mirren in “the
QUEEN” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada” (20th Century Fox)
Kate Winslet in “Little Children” (New Line)
JR-Helen Mirren - “the
QUEEN” Here’s the other lock this year. Bet the ranch on
this one. Mirren should/will win. Streep’s is a fluff nom. Cruz is perfectly
radiant and Winslet does her best work ever, but it’s All Hail The Queen this
year.
BO-This wasn’t a great year for female leads and only one of the actresses
nominated is in a studio film. With that I don’t think that Meryl Streep will
win for Devil Wears Prada because it’s a comedy and comedy doesn’t tend to win
here. That leaves the field open to our European neighbors and I think that it
comes down to Penelope Cruz for Volver or Kate Winslet for Little Children.
Winslet is likely to walk away with the award. |
|
ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Gosling in “HALF
NELSON” (THINKFilm)
Peter O’Toole in “Venus” (Miramax, Filmfour and UK Council)
Will Smith in “The Pursuit of Happyness” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Forest Whitaker in
"LAST
KING OF SCOTLAND" (Fox Searchlight)
JR-Forest Whitaker of THE
"LAST
KING OF SCOTLAND" This one has been considered a
lock for months now and while I still believe Whitaker both should and will win,
don’t be surprised if 7 time nominee Peter O’Toole gets the sentimental vote and
walks away with the golden boy. I for one, would not complain. O’Toole should
have won a couple of these in years past; Lawrence of Arabia and Lion in Winter.
BO-We have two actors from studio films and three from independent films in this
category. Leonardo DiCaprio is good in Blood Diamond but when I saw the film I
wasn’t thinking best actor. Will Smith is in the sappy Pursuit of Happyness and
just having a new hair style doesn’t get him the nod. That leaves us with Forest
Whitaker ("LAST
KING OF SCOTLAND"), Peter O'Toole (Venus) and Ryan Gosling
(“HALF
NELSON”). Gosling is a damn good actor but hardly anyone has seen
“HALF
NELSON”, O’Toole has the ‘he may die soon so let’s give him one’ vibe but
Whitaker is likely to win if the ‘geezer’ effect loses out.
|
|
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
“BABEL” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Written by Guillermo Arriaga
"LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA" (Warner Bros.) Screenplay by Iris Yamashita, Story by
Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis
“LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE” (Fox Searchlight) Written by Michael Arndt,
"PAN'S
LABYRINTH" (Picturehouse) Written by Guillermo del Toro
“the
QUEEN” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Written by Peter Morgan
JR-“BABEL” Will Win. A complex script filled with subtext.
"PAN'S
LABYRINTH" Should
Win. An obviously personal piece of writing from Guillermo Del Toro.
BO-“BABEL”
has a shot but I think that Paul Haggis and his partner will take the award for
"LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA", which means Haggis will repeat here after
winning for Crash last year. “LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE”,
"PAN'S
LABYRINTH" and
“the
QUEEN”
are all low budget films and while some marvel at the screenplays for Labyrinth
and Sunshine they are long shots at beat. |
|
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
"BORAT"
("Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of
Kazakhstan”) (20th Century Fox) Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines &
Peter Baynham & Dan Mazer, Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Peter Baynham & Anthony
Hines & Todd Phillips
“CHILDREN
OF MEN” (Universal) Screenplay by Alfonso Cuarón & Timothy J. Sexton
and David Arata and Mark Fergus & Hawk Ostby
“the
DEPARTED” (Warner Bros.) Screenplay by William Monahan
“Little Children” (New Line) Screenplay by Todd Field & Tom Perrotta
“Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight) Screenplay by Patrick Marber
JR-"BORAT" will/should
win. If only for the fact that I really want to see the
acceptance speech by Sascha Baron Cohen.
BO-"BORAT" the film is mostly improv and that cuts it out. William Monahan adapted
Departed from a film so he did less work than the other nominees. “CHILDREN
OF MEN” is rumored to have at least five hands on it. Notes on a Scandal has gotten
great reviews but hasn’t much buzz and so I think the statue goes to the small
film Little Children from actor/writer Todd Field.
|
|
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
“CARS” (Buena Vista) John Lasseter
“Happy Feet” (Warner Bros.) George Miller
"MONSTER
HOUSE" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Gil Kenan
JR-“CARS” This is the first year that I wouldn’t choose the Pixar release. This
one was uncharacteristically weak from Pixar. HAPPY FEET This is the film that
will win. If only to acknowledge it’s huge box-office success. "MONSTER
HOUSE"
This is the one that should win. Funny, scary, imaginative and original.
BO-The category has a weak Pixar film in “CARS” and adequate animation in both
Happy Feet and "MONSTER
HOUSE" so I pass on picking anything here.
|
|
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
“Deliver Us from Evil” (Lionsgate) A Disarming Films Production, Amy Berg and
Frank Donner
“AN
INCONVENIENT TRUTH” (Paramount Classics and Participant Productions) A
Lawrence Bender/Laurie David Production Davis Guggenheim
“Iraq in Fragments” (Typecast Releasing) A Typecast Pictures/Daylight Factory
Production
James Longley and John Sinno
“Jesus Camp” (Magnolia Pictures) A Loki Films Production, Heidi Ewing and Rachel
Grady
“My Country, My Country” (Zeitgeist Films) A Praxis Films Production, Laura
Poitras and Jocelyn Glatzer
JR-“AN
INCONVENIENT TRUTH ” will/should win. The Academy will look at this as a way
to make a statement, not only to the current administration but as to their own
social consciousness. Either way, they are correct in their choice.
BO-Al Gore has his tuxedo all ready for accepting the award for
“AN
INCONVENIENT TRUTH ”.
|
|
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
“After the Wedding” A Zentropa Entertainments 16 Production, Denmark
“Days of Glory (Indigènes)” A Tessalit Production, Algeria
“The Lives of Others” A Wiedemann & Berg Production, Germany
"PAN'S
LABYRINTH" A Tequila Gang/Esperanto Filmoj/Estudios Picasso Production,
Mexico
“Water” A Hamilton-Mehta Production, Canada
JR-"PAN'S
LABYRINTH"will/should Win. Guillermo Del Toro’s masterpiece. Not only
the best foreign language film of the year but also one of the very best films
of the last ten years.
BO-"PAN'S
LABYRINTH" from Mexico should/will win. |
|
DIRECTOR:
“BABEL” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Alejandro González Iñárritu
“the
DEPARTED” (Warner Bros.) Martin Scorsese
"LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA" (Warner Bros.) Clint Eastwood
“the
QUEEN” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Stephen Frears
"UNITED
93" (Universal and StudioCanal) Paul Greengrass
JR-“the
DEPARTED” will win. This is Marty’s year. Finally. But, my only
reservation is that this is not Taxi Driver, Raging Bull or Good Fellas. While
it’s certainly way over due for a director, who in my opinion, is one of the
greatest ever, there is better work in this category. As a matter of fact, there
are two better feats of direction. Actually, a third if Guillermo Del Toro had
been nominated for "PAN'S
LABYRINTH" as he SHOULD have been. I would gladly have
left off Stephen Frears’ work on
“the
QUEEN” to have Del Toro be rightfully here.
Clint Eastwood is THE man right now. He has established himself as a world class
artist in the last ten years. The combination of Flags/Letters is formidable.
Take away his acting credits and for his directing alone, he still makes a
significant contribution to the history of cinema. But, even so, there is
another film in the category that is my pick.
"UNITED
93" Should win. Paul Greengrass’ work was certainly cut out for him. This had to be a daunting task.
To make a film dramatization of events so soon after they occurred and still
prevalent in peoples hearts and minds, and to make that film without Hollywood
sentimentality or unnecessary showmanship (Oliver Stone’s "WORLD
TRADE CENTER")
must have felt like walking the narrowest of tightropes for Greengrass. But by
using a largely unknown cast and a pseudo-documentary style, Greengrass creates
an unforgettable and moving tribute to all those aboard that ill-fated flight.
BO-If I was voting then Paul Greengrass would get the award for
"UNITED
93" but I
don’t have a vote so lets cut out the delay and let Martin Scorsese walk up to
the podium for
“the
DEPARTED”. Eastwood has won twice already and the rest haven’t
paid dues long enough.
|
|
PICTURE:
“BABEL” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) An Anonymous Content/Zeta Film/Central
Films Production. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Jon Kilik and Steve Golin,
Producers
“the
DEPARTED” (Warner Bros.) A Warner Bros. Pictures Production. Graham King,
Producer
"LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA" (Warner Bros.) A DreamWorks Pictures/Warner Bros.
Pictures Production. Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz,
Producers
“LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE” (Fox Searchlight) A Big Beach/Bona Fide Production. David
T. Friendly, Peter Saraf and Marc Turtletaub, Producers
“the
QUEEN” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) A Granada Production. Andy Harries,
Christine Langan and Tracey Seaward, Producers
JR-We’ll start with the big kahuna. This is a
great list. I only have a small quibble or two. "PAN'S
LABYRINTH" and
"UNITED
93"
both need to be here. But what to drop from the list to make room? “LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE” could be sacrificed. While I love the film (it was in my top 10) my
other two choices are better. This is a tough pick this year. I think we may be
looking at a possible split for Director/Picture again. Momentum is going to
shift as we get closer to the ceremony. So take my Will Win pick with a grain of
salt. “BABEL” Will Win. I think this is going to be this years Crash. Scorcese
will take Best Director but “BABEL” will sneak away with the win. It was in my top
5 so I would not complain. If “BABEL”
doesn’t upset than it’s “the
DEPARTED” all the way. Too
close to call right now.
"LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA"
Should win. While this
film is the better of the two world War II Eastwood bookends, it is the
combination that stands as an achievement. This is what the makers of Tora Tora
Tora only dreamed of back in 1970. Eastwood bridges social and cultural gaps by
realistically portraying two perspectives of a seminal event in world history.
BO-First off everyone should stop whining about Dreamgirls not getting nominated
for Best Picture even though Bill Condon was nominated for director because the
reviews have suggested that the film dies out near the end. If there is anyone
who should be upset it’s the folks who made
"UNITED
93", one of the best of not
the best film of the year. So with that out of the way let’s get to the films
that were nominated and see who gets knocked out right away. So lose “LITTLE
MISS SUNSHINE” and “the
QUEEN”
because both are small films with limited audiences.
“BABEL” has a chance but the multiple storyline sort of takes it out of the game
which means it’s a fight between “the
DEPARTED” and
"LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA" . Iwo
Jima hasn’t been seen by enough people to have a serious chance so it looks like
Martin Scorsese will accept for “the
DEPARTED”, one of the best crime films of
this and any year. |
|
OTHER AWARD PICK'S BY JR:
ART DIRECTION: "PAN'S
LABYRINTH" will win and should win. Eugenio Cabellero’s art
direction is gorgeous and completely original.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: "PAN'S
LABYRINTH" again will win and should win. Guillermo Navarro
creates a real world that is the stuff of nightmares and a fantasy world that is
rich and realistic.
COSTUME DESIGN: Curse of the Golden Flower will/should win. The only possible
upset here could be Marie Antoinette.
FILM EDITING: “BABEL” will/should win. The team of Douglas Crise and Stephen
Mirrione balance a story that takes place in various parts of the world and with
initially separate storylines perfectly.
MAKE UP: "PAN'S
LABYRINTH"
will/should win. Sometimes subtle and other times
elaborate. Fantastic work.
ORIGINAL SCORE: Again "PAN'S
LABYRINTH" will/should win. Javier Navarette created a
score that stuck with me long after the movie ended.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
"PIRATES
OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST" will win. This will
be the Academy’s acknowledgement of this films gargantuan success.
"SUPERMAN RETURNS" should win. Much has been said as to the quality of the film itself but
the level of visual effects prowess is indisputable. The plane rescue scene was
exhilarating |
|
|
"Want to read some
upcoming comics now? We've got a bunch of SNEAKY PEEKIES of future
MARVEL, DC and IMAGE titles right
HERE" |
|
|
|
OSCAR ©
Copyright 2007 Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. No
right given or implied by Alternate Reality, Incorporated.
Article © 2007 Alternate Reality, Inc. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
