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OSCAR PREDICTIONS-2009
2018,
2017,
2016,
2015,
2014,
2013,
2011,
2010,
2009,
2008,
2007,
2006 |
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The Academy Awards are coming up and our
two opinion makers "BO" & "JR" have their predictions all set for Oscar Night.
How close will they be? We'll find out Sunday. |
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 AT THE MOVIES
-Once again it’s Academy Award time and we are once again weighing in with our
predictions. Since Bo got his predictions in first he gets the "top bunk"
BO-The 2009 Oscars will be awarded on Sunday, 2/22/09 on ABC. This year’s
production is supposed to be much tighter than previous awards but I have heard
that before. One of the rumored changes could have the order of award
presentation altered so we won’t get the writing, actor, actress, director and
film awards given in the last 35 minutes. The host is actor Hugh Jackman and at
some point during the show he is going to sing and dance.
JR-Predicting Oscar winners has little to do with who deserves to win. Anyone
who predicts on the basis of quality is doomed to score low. The first lesson to
learn when predicting Oscars (especially if you're involved in a pool - purely
for entertainment, of course) is that it's sometimes a coincidence when the best
man or woman takes home the prize. I've done what I usually do and selected who
I think WILL win and who I believe SHOULD win. Let the office pools begin!! |
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
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Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson,
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The
Wrestler
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BO-Two nominations for the same film actually
eliminate Adams and Davis since voters tend to vacillate between the
performances so that knocks them out in my book. Cruz is a dark horse as is
Henson but I am leaning towards Tomei. Her performance in The
Wrestler is complex at
it could be and there are moments in which she tells us more with silence than
any dialogue a writer could come up with. She has won in this category before so
this should make her a two time winner. |
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JR-Viola Davis, Doubt. When an underdog wins, it's
often in one of the Supporting categories. Since Heath Ledger's position is
impregnable, that means the most likely category for an upset is this one. The
favorite is Penelope Cruz, and maybe she'll win. But something tells me the
front-runner could be in trouble here. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Marisa Tomei, The
Wrestler |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Viola Davis, Doubt |
| 2009 WINNER:
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona |
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SUPPORTING ACTOR:
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Josh Brolin,
Milk
Robert Downey Jr.,
Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger,
The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
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BO-If there was anything more than a sure thing in
this category I would be surprised. This award was in Heath Ledger’s hand (well,
his families) from the moment people sat in a theater and watched Dark Knight.
The other performances are great but Ledger’s work will be remembered for a very
long time. |
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JR-Heath Ledger,
The Dark Knight. It's not a level playing
field, and none of the other nominees have shown any interest in evening out the
odds. (Better to be alive and have no Oscar than dead and have one.) The great
unanswered (and unanswerable) question is whether a living Ledger would have
been able to win this award. Anyone who argues that his death isn't a factor is
fooling themselves. How many people have voted for him just to see the
tear-jerking spectacle of his daughter (and her mother) accepting the award? In
my eyes, will and should win. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Heath Ledger |
| JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Heath Ledger |
| 2009 WINNER:
Heath Ledger,
The Dark Knight |
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BEST ACTRESS:
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Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The
Reader
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BO-There isn’t a bad performance in this category but someone has to take the
golden statue home with them. Leo’s performance probably hasn’t been seen by
most members of the Academy. Streep is just continuing her string of great
performances. Hathaway isn’t going to get it either so the options are between
Jolie and Winslet. Winslet is better in Revolutionary Road and I am tired of
Nazi based films getting awards so I am picking Jolie. |
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JR-Kate Winslet, The
Reader. Not a lock, but she has been nominated enough times that
the Academy will probably figure it's time to give her an award. Arguably the
best actress of her generation. Her work in Revolutionary Road is better.
Certainly that film is better. But she will and should win based on sheer
ability. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Angelina Jolie |
| JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Kate Winslet |
| 2009 WINNER:
Kate Winslet, The
Reader |
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BEST ACTOR:
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Richard Jenkins The Visitor
Frank Langella
Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn Milk
Brad Pitt
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke The
Wrestler |
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BO-This is a horse race between Penn and Rourke.
Jenkins, Langella and Pitt are fine actors but this isn’t their year. If I was
in charge of the nominations then I would have placed Clint Eastwood for his
performance in Gran Torino but I don’t get a ballot. Penn has won before so the
voters may not be willing to give him another Oscar. Rourke is in the midst of a
comeback and his performance in
The Wrestler takes him from high to low to
somewhere in between. I don’t see anything in Penn’s performance that is any
different than his other performances save for his hair and him toning things
down so I am picking Rourke.
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JR-Sean Penn, Milk. Penn is not all that well-liked
in Hollywood, but I get the sense that there's a groundswell to give Milk
something. Mickey Roarke in The
Wrestler makes this the only real horse race category for the
year. Personally, if either of them win, I won't be disappointed.
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Mickey Rourke |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Sean Penn |
| 2009 WINNER:
Sean Penn Milk |
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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
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Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E |
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BO-For the life of me I have no idea how these five
ended up in this category. Well, not all of them but some make me scratch my
head. Happy-Go-Lucky is here because Mike Leigh directed the film as far as I
can figure. In Bruges was a small film with a great premise. Frozen River wasn’t
seen by general audiences but obviously most of the people in the audience were
writers. So that leaves it between
Milk and
Wall-E and if I was a betting man I would lay my money on
Wall-E. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Wall-E |
| JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Milk |
| 2009 WINNER:
Milk |
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ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
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Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E |
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BO-They might as well rename this the Pixar award
since whenever the studio makes a film they walk away with the Oscar. Aside from
a few kids and the ad agency that came up with the campaign no one remembers
Bolt. Panda is traditional animation and the film made a ton of money but I am
picking
Wall-E. |
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JR-Something is terribly wrong if
Wall-E does not win. This film belongs in
the Best Picture category. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Wall-E |
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JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Wall-E |
| 2009 WINNER:
Wall-E |
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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
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The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revanche
Waltz With Bashir |
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BO-This award will go to the animated Bashir due to its unique style. The Class
just opened in this area recently and it has also gotten great reviews but I am
going with Bashir.
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Waltz With Bashir |
| JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Waltz With Bashir |
| 2009 WINNER:
Departures |
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BEST PICTURE:
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The
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
'Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire |
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BO-The winner of best director telegraphs the winner
of Picture so if Boyle wins then Millionaire will take the award for best
picture whether it deserves to or not. And if it does then the Academy will
continue a tradition of giving awards to films that the general audience doesn’t
care about. I haven’t gone to see
Slumdog
Millionaire and since the subject matter doesn’t interest me I am
not planning to do so anytime soon. It would have been nice if
The Dark Knight had been included in this
category because it was one of the best films of last year. That’s not saying
that I would want it to win but if it was I would bet that a few more eyeballs
would be watching the end of the show. |
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JR-Slumdog
Millionaire. Will and should win. Maybe not a lock, but it rests
in a comfortable position. I have long thought this movie would win based on its
broad, feel-good appeal. The real question is: How long are its coattails? As a
side note, YES!
The Dark Knight should have been in this
category (as should
Wall-E). The
Curious Case of Benjamin Button and
The Reader
could have easily been sacrificed. |
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BO'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Slumdog Millionaire |
| JR'S PICK FOR WINNER:
Slumdog Millionaire |
| 2009 WINNER:
Slumdog Millionaire |
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FINAL TALLEY:
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BO PICKED 5 of 10 WINNERS |
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JR PICK 8 of 10 WINNERS |
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OSCAR © Copyright 2009 Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. No right given or implied by Alternate Reality, Incorporated.
Article © 2009 Alternate Reality, Inc.
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