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OSCAR PREDICTIONS-2009
2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
The Academy Awards are coming up and our two opinion makers "BO" & "JR" have their predictions all set for Oscar Night. How close will they be? We'll find out Sunday.
AT THE MOVIES -Once again itís Academy Award time and we are once again weighing in with our predictions. Since Bo got his predictions in first he gets the "top bunk"

BO-The 2009 Oscars will be awarded on Sunday, 2/22/09 on ABC. This yearís production is supposed to be much tighter than previous awards but I have heard that before. One of the rumored changes could have the order of award presentation altered so we wonít get the writing, actor, actress, director and film awards given in the last 35 minutes. The host is actor Hugh Jackman and at some point during the show he is going to sing and dance.

JR-Predicting Oscar winners has little to do with who deserves to win. Anyone who predicts on the basis of quality is doomed to score low. The first lesson to learn when predicting Oscars (especially if you're involved in a pool - purely for entertainment, of course) is that it's sometimes a coincidence when the best man or woman takes home the prize. I've done what I usually do and selected who I think WILL win and who I believe SHOULD win. Let the office pools begin!!
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penťlope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
 
BO-Two nominations for the same film actually eliminate Adams and Davis since voters tend to vacillate between the performances so that knocks them out in my book. Cruz is a dark horse as is Henson but I am leaning towards Tomei. Her performance in The Wrestler is complex at it could be and there are moments in which she tells us more with silence than any dialogue a writer could come up with. She has won in this category before so this should make her a two time winner.
 
JR-Viola Davis, Doubt. When an underdog wins, it's often in one of the Supporting categories. Since Heath Ledger's position is impregnable, that means the most likely category for an upset is this one. The favorite is Penelope Cruz, and maybe she'll win. But something tells me the front-runner could be in trouble here.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Viola Davis, Doubt
2009 WINNER: Penťlope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
 
BO-If there was anything more than a sure thing in this category I would be surprised. This award was in Heath Ledgerís hand (well, his families) from the moment people sat in a theater and watched Dark Knight. The other performances are great but Ledgerís work will be remembered for a very long time.
 
JR-Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. It's not a level playing field, and none of the other nominees have shown any interest in evening out the odds. (Better to be alive and have no Oscar than dead and have one.) The great unanswered (and unanswerable) question is whether a living Ledger would have been able to win this award. Anyone who argues that his death isn't a factor is fooling themselves. How many people have voted for him just to see the tear-jerking spectacle of his daughter (and her mother) accepting the award? In my eyes, will and should win.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Heath Ledger
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Heath Ledger
2009 WINNER: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
BEST ACTRESS:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
 
BO-There isnít a bad performance in this category but someone has to take the golden statue home with them. Leoís performance probably hasnít been seen by most members of the Academy. Streep is just continuing her string of great performances. Hathaway isnít going to get it either so the options are between Jolie and Winslet. Winslet is better in Revolutionary Road and I am tired of Nazi based films getting awards so I am picking Jolie.
 
JR-Kate Winslet, The Reader. Not a lock, but she has been nominated enough times that the Academy will probably figure it's time to give her an award. Arguably the best actress of her generation. Her work in Revolutionary Road is better. Certainly that film is better. But she will and should win based on sheer ability.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Angelina Jolie
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Kate Winslet
2009 WINNER: Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST ACTOR:
Richard Jenkins The Visitor
Frank Langella Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn Milk
Brad Pitt The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke The Wrestler
 
BO-This is a horse race between Penn and Rourke. Jenkins, Langella and Pitt are fine actors but this isnít their year. If I was in charge of the nominations then I would have placed Clint Eastwood for his performance in Gran Torino but I donít get a ballot. Penn has won before so the voters may not be willing to give him another Oscar. Rourke is in the midst of a comeback and his performance in The Wrestler takes him from high to low to somewhere in between. I donít see anything in Pennís performance that is any different than his other performances save for his hair and him toning things down so I am picking Rourke.
 
JR-Sean Penn, Milk. Penn is not all that well-liked in Hollywood, but I get the sense that there's a groundswell to give Milk something. Mickey Roarke in The Wrestler makes this the only real horse race category for the year. Personally, if either of them win, I won't be disappointed.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Mickey Rourke
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Sean Penn
2009 WINNER: Sean Penn Milk
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E
 
BO-For the life of me I have no idea how these five ended up in this category. Well, not all of them but some make me scratch my head. Happy-Go-Lucky is here because Mike Leigh directed the film as far as I can figure. In Bruges was a small film with a great premise. Frozen River wasnít seen by general audiences but obviously most of the people in the audience were writers. So that leaves it between Milk and Wall-E and if I was a betting man I would lay my money on Wall-E.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Wall-E
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Milk
2009 WINNER: Milk
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
 
BO-One of the hardest things to do is adapt someone elseís work. With an original screenplay everything comes from inside your head but with an adaptation the source material is always there. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was a short story and the film ignored parts of it. Doubt was adapted by the writer of the play so he had an easy job figuring out what would translate, The Reader I canít figure out and so we have Frost/Nixon and Slumdog Millionaire to pick from. If it was me I would go with Frost/Nixon since the play is a one on one chat but I have a feeling that Slumdog Millionaire will win.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
2009 WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
 
BO-They might as well rename this the Pixar award since whenever the studio makes a film they walk away with the Oscar. Aside from a few kids and the ad agency that came up with the campaign no one remembers Bolt. Panda is traditional animation and the film made a ton of money but I am picking Wall-E.
 
JR-Something is terribly wrong if Wall-E does not win. This film belongs in the Best Picture category.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Wall-E
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Wall-E
2009 WINNER: Wall-E
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revanche
Waltz With Bashir
 
BO-This award will go to the animated Bashir due to its unique style. The Class just opened in this area recently and it has also gotten great reviews but I am going with Bashir.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Waltz With Bashir
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Waltz With Bashir
2009 WINNER: Departures
DIRECTOR:
Danny Boyle Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry The Reader
David Fincher The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant Milk
 
BO-The Directors Guild of America has already given their award to Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire so his getting it here is more or less a lock. If he doesnít walk away with the award (and it has happened) then Van Sant will win for the more conventional Milk. Fincher should have been nominated last year for Zodiac and Eastwood should be in this category instead of Daldry.
 
JR-Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire. Often goes in lock-step with Best Picture. No reason that should be different this year. Will and should win.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
2009 WINNER: Danny Boyle Slumdog Millionaire
BEST PICTURE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
'Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
 
BO-The winner of best director telegraphs the winner of Picture so if Boyle wins then Millionaire will take the award for best picture whether it deserves to or not. And if it does then the Academy will continue a tradition of giving awards to films that the general audience doesnít care about. I havenít gone to see Slumdog Millionaire and since the subject matter doesnít interest me I am not planning to do so anytime soon. It would have been nice if The Dark Knight had been included in this category because it was one of the best films of last year. Thatís not saying that I would want it to win but if it was I would bet that a few more eyeballs would be watching the end of the show.
 
JR-Slumdog Millionaire. Will and should win. Maybe not a lock, but it rests in a comfortable position. I have long thought this movie would win based on its broad, feel-good appeal. The real question is: How long are its coattails? As a side note, YES! The Dark Knight should have been in this category (as should Wall-E). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Reader could have easily been sacrificed.
 
BO'S PICK FOR WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
JR'S PICK FOR WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
2009 WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
FINAL TALLEY:
BO PICKED 5 of 10 WINNERS
JR PICK 8 of 10 WINNERS

OSCAR © Copyright 2009 Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. No right given or implied by Alternate Reality, Incorporated.

Article © 2009 Alternate Reality, Inc.

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