|
|
(022219) The 91st Annual Academy
Awards (aka: Oscars) will be held on Sunday, February 24th
at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood at the Highland Center,
and will be shown on ABC. After the Kevin Hart kafuffle over
insensitive tweets he had made earlier in his career lead to
his stepping down as host, the Academy eventually decided to
go host-less this year. As in past years we invited our critics to weigh in with their predictions for this
years Oscar race and once again they rose to the task.
Back again is reviewer emeritus "Good Old JR" Jim Rutkowski.
He is again being joined by our newsman emeritus Larry "Bocepheus" Evans and
our art house critic "Big Tuna" Vito Carli
has returned again as well. Of the 22
principle categories this year (all listed below) none of our titanic trio of
critics tackled every single nomination, but all were given
the option. "None
picked" means the reviewer chose to skip that category for
whatever reason. In total there are a total of fifty
predictions below by all three reviewers.
A word on the format: If you are reading this before
February
24th the order of the nominations conforms to the order
awards were announced at the 2018 Oscar telecast. If this
years order deviates from last years, the appropriate
structural change to this list will be made after this years
telecast to conform with the 2019 broadcast. Beyond that
(and the final tally) no edits will be made to this list.
The linked film titles below are to reviews on this site of
the film being cited. The links themselves do not correspond
to the reviewers themselves but rather to the review located
on this site.
Finally, after you read this years reviews be sure to check
out this years Oscar Podcast featuring Good Old Jr,
Bocepheus, Rod Flash, Big Tuna Vito and Comicbookman as they delve into
even greater depth on this years potential winners....
|
|
|
|
EPISODE 97: OSCAR
PICKS 2019
(022119)
Our Picks for the 91st Annual Academy Awards |
|
|
Enjoy and good luck to all...
|
|
|
|
 Do
you hear the rumble of publicists? The murmuring of critics? The bustling of
stylists? Those sounds can only mean one thing: the Oscars are almost here. Hype
for Hollywood's biggest annual event began with the fall film festivals, kicked
into high gear in January with the Golden Globes, and is sure to be a daily
presence in our lives through February 24, 2019, when the gold statuettes will
be handed out. As new favorites emerge and campaigns ramp up, let's take a look
at who I think will take home the gold.
|
 This
year’s Oscar nominations have been announced. Roma and The Favourite
received ten nominations each; eight for Vice and A Star Is Born;
seven for
Black Panther;
six for BlacKkKlansman; five for Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, and four for
First Man. The 91st Academy Awards will be
held on Sunday, February 24th at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland
Center in Hollywood, and will be shown on ABC. For the first time in quite a
while the show will not have a host. The plan is for the show to come in under
three hours.
|
 It
was a decent year for motion pictures but you would not know it from this year’s
Oscar choices which represent the weakest batch of nominees in years. Maybe it
is because the Oscars are bending over backwards to please those who appreciate
commerce and entertainment over art. Most of the choices this year do not
represent the best movies in the United States let alone the world. Nonetheless
there were some good pics nominated, and some talented people are bound to get
rewarded.
I know that the Oscar ratings are hemorrhaging but this is a natural
development since there are more stations and viewing choices available than
ever. Many of the recent changes have been proposed to artificially raise
ratings such as giving out some awards during commercials and including a best
entertainment category smack of desperation would make the whole thing affair
even less respectable. Luckily most of the changes have been rejected at least
for now. Perhaps someday we will see a best film made for over 200 million
dollars or a best Disney /Pixar film category (okay I am half kidding.)
Anyway this is what I think of some of the individual choices.
You can read more of Vittorio Carl’s writings at
www.artinterviews.org. Come see
Vittorio Carli read from his new poetry book Tape Worm Salad with Olive Oil for
Extra Flavor at his feature at Gallery Cabaret on Tuesday, Feb 26 (from 7-9)
at 2020 N Oakley and his own show from 5-7 at The Art Colony at 230 N.
Fletcher on April 13 (also featuring Dave Gecic) and June 8.
|
|
|
|
Best Documentary – Feature
"Free Solo" (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan
Hayes & Shannon Dill)
"Hale County This Morning, This Evening" (RaMell Ross,
Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim)
"Minding the Gap" (Bing Liu and Diane Quon)
"Of Fathers and Sons" (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva
Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert)
"RBG" (Betsy West and Julie Cohen)
|
 And
the winner is: "Free Solo" (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy
Chin, Evan Hayes & Shannon Dill)
This category has opened up to predictions following the
notable omission of the expected front-runner, Won’t You Be
My Neighbor? The Mr. Rogers documentary seemed like such a
shoo-in for the top prize given its critical acclaim and
beloved subject matter, with many declaring that it was the
movie everyone needed at this moment in time. The Ruth Bader
Ginsburg documentary RBG could fill that hunger instead but
our bet goes on Free Solo, a staggering technical
achievement and fascinating ethical study in the limits of
the documentary, focusing on a free solo climber attempting
to scale El Capitan. It’s one of the most astounding
cinematic experiences of 2018.
|
|
 My
Take: This has always been a tricky category. Does the
subject make the film and create the interest or does the
Academy just go to Netflix and his shuffle? RBG hit theaters
and went over well with audiences.
My Prediction: RBG but Of Fathers and Sons could steal this
|
 Will
and should win: Minding the Gap
Where is Won’t you be My Neighbor or Three Identical
Strangers? The academy generally leaves out the best and
most popular docs. I did see and liked RPG, but Minding the
Gap (about poor Rockford kids that are into skate boarding)
is a bit better
|
|
|
|
Best Costume Design
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,”
Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,”
Sandy Powell
“Mary
Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne
|
And
the winner is: “The Favourite,”
Sandy Powell
There’s not much to say in the design categories. There’s a
period piece up for best picture and nine other Oscars this
year, so it’s probably got the inside track. “Black Panther”
has been a popular pick among pundits, and that would be
exciting, but more often than not, period porn wins out.
|
|
My
pick: None picked
|
Mmmn
I thought The Favourite had the best costume design but
Black Panther as much more popular. A close call but The
Favourite for should and will win. Buster Scruggs may also
have a shot.
|
|
Best Production Design
“Black Panther”
Hannah Beachler
“First
Man” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,”
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary
Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
|
And
the winner is: “The Favourite,”
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
See “Best Costume Design.” Granted, the design categories
have split more often than not lately, and “Black Panther”
is formidable. But again, a dominant, period-set best
picture player is hard to bet against.
|
My
Take:
First Man finally gets
some love here but it isn’t going to win. Neither is
Mary Poppins Returns or The Favourite.
So it’s between
Black Panther
and Roma. Roma takes place in a smaller world while
Black Panther
takes place in a global setting.
My Prediction:
Black Panther
|
Should
Win: None picked
Will Win: None
picked |
|
Best Cinematography
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,”
Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,”
Matthew Libatique
|
And
the winner is: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
Roma has a slew of technical nominations this year, and
deservedly so, but its stark and layered black and white
cinematography is one of the film’s most beautiful elements.
It’s also all the work of Alfonso Cuarón himself, as he took
on the mantle of being his own film’s cinematographer. This
is not unusual – last year, Paul Thomas Anderson was the
cinematographer on Phantom Thread – but it remains uncommon
for a reason. It’s technically difficult and physically
demanding work to juggling alongside directorial duties. If
Best Picture is likely, so is this.
|
My
Take: Quite a few newcomers here and a legacy. This is a
three horse race. Ryan and Zal are the congratulations but
it’s not your time duo. Deschanel as always turns in
beautiful work but he’s not winning here. So it’s between
Cuaron and Libatique. Star is a gorgeous film to see but
Cuaron had the more challenging job.
My Prediction: Cuaron
|
Will
win: Roma
Should win: Cold War
The most gorgeously shot films that I saw this year (Roma
and Cold War) were both in black and white. I predict Roma
will win.
|
|
Best Sound Editing
“Black Panther,”
Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First
Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A
Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
|
And
the winner is: “Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
The sound categories boil down to a moonshot biopic
relegated to the Academy’s crafts fields and a pair of
best-picture-contending musical dramas. The smart play is to
pick one for both, but the sound editing category is where
things can sometimes get interesting, particularly when
musicals are in play. In general, though, focus on the best
picture nominees. “Bohemian Rhapsody” won the BAFTA sound
prize (the Brits combine these into one category) as well as
a pair of MPSE awards, so it’s probably in the lead here.
|
My
Take: Under the new rules the winner of this award will be
announced during the commercials but I am going to pick the
winner anyway. This is something you don’t notice if the
work is done well. I still don’t get the Rhapsody love but a
film using so much music has to be edited well. I would have
picked A Star Is Born
over Rhapsody.
My Prediction: When you consider the subject matter of
A Quiet Place it’s
the obvious winner but the Academy will miss the mark on
that here. I am picking Panther but do love the work done in
First Man.
The winner:
Black Panther
|
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
|
Best Sound Mixing
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First
Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
|
|
And
the winner is: See “Best Sound Editing.” There’s a slight
chance the Academy goes for “First
Man” in a big way in these last few
categories, though. |
|
My
pick: None picked |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
|
|
|
Best Film Editing
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,”
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin
|
And
the winner is: “The Favourite,”
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
The editing category this year is one of the weirdest
selection of nominees. Nothing about Green Book's editing
was especially interesting and Bohemian Rhapsody was
frequently called out by critics for its messiness. These
additions seem all the more confusing given the omissions,
such as Roma (co-edited by Cuarón), First Man, or Joe Bini’s
stellar work on You Were Never Really Here. The lack of
expected front-runners makes this category tougher to
predict, but the Academy always love a period drama and The
Favourite comes with the benefit of being directed in an
unexpectedly modern fashion that requires a deft editorial
vision. The flashier the work, the more likely it is to get
an Oscar.
|
My
Take: Looking at the field here I have to consider who had
the harder job. Rhapsody had concert scenes to do and Vice
doesn’t follow a straight narrative. The other three had it
easier in my opinion so my choice will be in the Christopher
Nolan tradition.
My Prediction: Vice
|
|
Because
of the closing montage Spike Lee’s flick will take this |
|
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali ("Green Book")
Adam Driver ("BlacKkKlansman")
Sam Elliott ("A Star Is Born")
Richard E. Grant ("Can You Ever Forgive Me?")
Sam Rockwell ("Vice")
|
And
the winner is: Mahershala Ali ("Green Book")
Mahershala Ali has dominated the industry awards circuit in
this category. Critics champ Richard E. Grant’s last stand
was at the BAFTA awards, where Ali still managed to pull off
the win, but he has certainly been a delightful presence on
the circuit, and that could help him make up some ground.
Ultimately, though, all signs are pointing to Ali.
|
My
Take: I don’t have a problem with any of the nominees here.
All gave great performances. Rockwell won last year. Elliot
is here due to his body of work but Andrew Dice Clay had
more to do in Star. Driver is interesting but I don’t see
him winning. That leaves us with Grant and Ali. Grant has
never won but Forgive Me was barely seen. Ali won for
Moonlight two years ago and I think he is going to get this
because he was outstanding as Don Shirley.
My Prediction: Mahershala Ali
|
Will
win: anyone could take it
Should win: Sam Rockwell
I thought that Driver was the lead in Blackkklansman. This
up for grabs, but I was most amused by Rockwell’s amusing
turn as the dim witted Bush. He somehow made the ex pres
almost likeable. No mean feat!
|
|
Best Animated Feature Film
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti,
Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
|
And
the winner is: “Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti,
Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
In a category that is usually dominated by Disney-Pixar, not
only did the animated iteration of the web-slinger spin a
twist on the superhero genre, the power of the message
“anyone can wear the mask” stoked emotions across a world of
comic book fans who might otherwise have not seen themselves
reflected in the cinematic superhero world that has to date
been dominated by white actors. Furthermore, the combination
of 2D and 3D animation and taking direct inspiration from
the style and colors of Spidey’s comic book roots,
Spider-verse served up a very new and very inclusive
superhero.
|
|
My
Take: All films are qualified but Ralph is less so. Isle of
Dogs is very entertaining for the story and the voice
talent. Mirai I haven’t seen.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
is one of the films on my top ten list of the year. It’s
funny, charming, touching, exciting and flat out fun.
My Prediction:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
|
Will
and should win
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Hmm maybe
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
will win. It was both very popular, innovative in many ways
and respectable. I think Isle of Dogs is too offbeat. I
liked it but I do not think it will appeal to a huge group
of Oscar judges. Incredibles 2 was also fine but it recycles
and sometimes extends concepts that were introduced in other
films so it feels a bit recycled. But it may be the best
Fantastic Four film ever.
|
|
Best Documentary – Short
Subject
"Black Sheep" (Ed Perkins and Jonathan Chinn)
"End Game" (Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman)
"Lifeboat" (Skye Fitzgerald and Bryn Mooser)
"A Night at the Garden" (Marshall Curry)
"Period. End of Sentence" (Rayka Zehtabchi and Melissa
Berton)
|
|
And
the winner will be: None picked |
|
My
pick: None picked |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
|
Best Visual Effects
“Avengers:
Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First
Man”
“Ready
Player One”
“Solo:
A Star Wars Story”
|
And
the winner is: “Avengers:
Infinity War”
The films absent from the category of Best Visual Effects
are almost as notable as the ones that are present: No
Black Panther,
no
Aquaman, No
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of
Grindelwald. And in their place: Christopher
Robin? As with make-up and hairstyling, this award
frequently goes to the biggest and most elaborate work of
the year, and nowhere was that more evident than in 2018's
biggest movie, Avengers: Infinity War. Even superhero cynics
cannot deny the sheer scale and skill on display in that
film, nor the attention to detail in realizing Thanos.
|
My
Take: I have no issue with any of the nominees here. At face
value I would say
Ready Player One beats
out all of the other nominees but the film just sort of died
at the box office. Solo looks like all the other Star Wars
films,
First Man looks more
natural, Christopher Robin is mixing styles and so that
leaves
Avengers: Infinity War
which had to create multiple worlds and settings.
My Prediction:
Avengers: Infinity War
|
|
This
is the one category where the ultra-popular Marvel franchise
film will win. |
|
Best Live Action – Short
Film
"Detainment" (Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon)
"Fauve" (Jérémy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon)
"Marguerite" (Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset)
"Mother" (Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado)
"Skin" (Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman)
|
|
And
the winner is: None picked |
|
My
pick: None picked |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
|
Best Original Screenplay
"The Favourite"
(Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
"First Reformed"
(Paul Schrader)
"Green Book" (Nick Vallelonga & Brian Hayes Currie & Peter
Farrelly)
"Roma" (Alfonso Cuaron)
"Vice" (Adam McKay)
|
And
the winner is: "The Favourite"
(Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
Writer Deborah Davis had been working on the script on the
battle of control for the court of Queen Anne, as early as
1998. 20 years later, it finally found its way to the big
screen under the direction of the celebrated and very
esoteric Yorgos Lanthimos, a man whose cinematic style does
not necessarily seem compatible with period drama. The
Favourite is an ideal mix of classic historical intrigue and
Lanthimos' dry wit and unnerving absurdity. Lanthimos’ work
is often more recognized in terms of its screenplays than
his direction, which could push Davis and co-writer Tony
McNamara to the win.
|
My
Take: This is the degree of difficulty award. Roma and
First Reformed are
personal stories. Green Book is a story about race
relations.
The Favourite
is a historical piece. Vice is a biography of sorts created
by anecdotes and historical events. McKay had a much harder
job than the others did. Dick Cheney never talked to him and
the structure of his screenplay keeps us engaged all the way
until the end.
My Prediction: Vice
|
First
Reformed is by far the best deserving, but The Favourite
which is wonderfully witty has a better shot. This will
probably the only category in which this film is rewarded.
|
|
Best Adapted Screenplay
"A Star Is Born"
(Eric Roth, Will Fetters & Bradley Cooper)
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
"BlacKkKlansman" (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin
Willmott & Spike Lee)
"If Beale Street Could Talk" (Barry Jenkins)
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?" (Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty)
|
And
the winner is: "BlacKkKlansman" (Charlie Wachtel, David
Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)
Lee is not simply rehashing the undercurrents of his long
career. His earlier films – especially “Do the Right Thing”
and “Malcolm X” – were far more urgent and aggressive
because they had to be; few had dealt with the difficult
questions before him, and bringing them up was like taking a
sledgehammer to a cultural delusion. Now the mask of
intolerance has crumbled as both sides have taken to the
streets, leaving little doubt that the strains remain alive
and thriving. The agenda of “BlacKkKlansman,” in that
respect, is to observe from a far less sensational
standpoint. The movie is more contemplative than
confrontational. But through its dedicated actors, a
perceptive screenplay and a brazen sense of directorial
focus, the movie comes alive as an understated call to arms,
where intelligence and character become the great tools to
conquer a primitive American philosophy.
|
My
Take: One of the hardest things to do is take someone’s work
and translate it into film. You have to keep certain
elements of the story and fear that you cut out the wrong
part. This year the writers had an easier job. Scruggs is a
collection of short stories, Beale Street is a small book,
Klansman and Forgive Me have simple direct tales to tell and
Star has been adapted many times.
My Prediction: All are worthy but I am picking A Star Is Born
|
Ballad
made me chuckle the most, and Beale Street could take it to
make up for the snubs. But Blackkklansman will take it (The
script was the only major category that Lee’s greatest film,
Do the Right Thing was nominated for so it would be justice.
|
|
Best Original Score
"Black Panther"
(Ludwig Goransson)
"BlacKkKlansman" (Terence Blanchard)
"If Beale Street Could Talk" (Nicholas Britell)
"Isle of Dogs" (Alexandre Desplat)
"Mary
Poppins Returns"(Marc Shaiman)
|
And
the winner is: "If Beale Street Could Talk" (Nicholas
Britell)
This year's nominees for Best Score feature a few familiar
names, like Alexandre Desplat and Marc Shaiman. But it's in
the less familiar names where the magic truly lies. Ludwig
Göransson, a regular collaborator with Ryan Coogler, landed
a nomination for his work on
Black Panther
while Terence Blanchard, who has worked with Spike Lee for
close to 30 years, landed his first nomination for
BlacKkKlansman. However, the most talked about score of the
year has been Nicholas Britell's work on If Beale Street
Could Talk.
|
My
Take: We have here a mix of well respected composers who
have never disappointed and do not here. The
Black Panther
theme has been in my head since I saw the movie. The trick
of a good score in not noticing it and I honestly cannot
remember most of Desplat’s score. Most Spike Lee films
overdo it with the score. So it is time for a go out on a
limb moment.
My Prediction: Brittel for Beale Street
|
I
hope and predict that the great jazzman, Terrence Blanchard
will win and he deserves to win (can I mention that I once
met him and got his autograph?) Where is Thom Yorke for
Suspiria? It could have been the first nomination for a
Giallo film.
|
|
Best Original Song
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony
Tiffith. Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith
and Solana Rowe
"I'll Fight" (RBG)
Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary
Poppins Returns)
Music by Marc Shaiman. Lyrics by Scott Wittman and Marc
Shaiman
"Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
Music & Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando
& Andrew Wyatt
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of
Buster Scruggs)
Music and Lyric by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
|
And
the winner is: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born),
Music & Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando
& Andrew Wyatt
Shallow is the song that's been on every playlist and has
been featured at every karaoke session since that first
trailer for A Star Is Born dropped. In a film full of strong
musical numbers, it's Shallow that sticks in people's minds,
and for good reason. Even with competition as good as Diane
Warren and Kendrick Lamar, this feels like Lady Gaga's prize
for the taking.
|
My
Take: The biggest controversy here is that All the Stars and
Shallow will get the entire song played while the other
three are getting 90 second versions sung by Jennifer Hudson
and whoever is singing Spurs. The Academy says it’s for time
reasons but honestly Stars and Shallow happen to be the ones
played on the radio. I bought the
Black Panther
soundtrack just for Stars and love the song but Shallows has
been in my head since seeing the A Star Is Born
trailer.
My Prediction: Shallow
|
All
the Stars is the best actual song but voters will go Gaga
for Shallow. A Star is Born was much better than it had to
be, and this is where it is most likely to be rewarded.
|
|
Best Actor
Christian Bale ("Vice")
Bradley Cooper ("A Star Is Born")
Willem Dafoe ("At Eternity’s Gate")
Rami Malek ("Bohemian Rhapsody")
Viggo Mortensen ("Green Book")
|
And
the winner is: Rami Malek ("Bohemian Rhapsody")
This seemed like it was Bale’s Oscar to lose — after all, he
does all but disappear into the role of Dick Cheney in Vice.
But Rami Malek‘s riveting performance as Queen frontman
Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody has proven to be quite
the contender, and his win over Bale at the Screen Actors
Guild Awards cements him as the current front-runner in the
Best Actor race.
|
My
Take: Malek is the best thing in Rhapsody. Dafoe turns in
another great performance. Cooper was the slick looking
boyfriend in Alias and look at him now. He gives an
outstanding performance while also directing the film.
Mortensen takes over the screen in every moment of Green
Book. And Bale literally turns into Dick Cheney. There are a
lot of tough choices here.
My Prediction: Mortensen but Bale is my dark horse.
|
Will
win: Mortensen
Should Win: Dafoe
Christian Bale as always is great, but he was not
particularly brilliant in Vice plus he relied heavily on
makeup for the role. Either Viggo or Bale will take it but
Dafoe (or Ethan Hawke or Joaquin Phoenix who were not
nominated) deserve it more. Probably not Cooper or Malek
(who up until now has been mainly a TV star.)
|
|
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio ("Roma")
Glenn Close ("The Wife")
Olivia Colman ("The Favourite")
Lady Gaga ("A Star Is Born")
Melissa McCarthy ("Can You Ever Forgive Me?")
|
And
the winner is: Glenn Close ("The Wife")
This is another film that didn’t receive a lot of love, but
Close’s performance is unmatched. She won the Golden Globe
for her role as Joan Castleman in The Wife, and though that
doesn’t mean she’ll definitely win the Oscar, it seems
likely that her time has finally come: Close has been
nominated for an Acadamy Award for her acting a record seven
times with no wins.
|
My
Take: You can take Aparicio and McCarthy out of the mix as
well as Gaga. This is a horse race between Colman and Close.
Both veteran actresses who knock it out of the park with
every role especially these.
My Prediction: Flipping a coin here and the flip tells me
Close.
|
These
are all pretty good choices, but Glenn Close who took the
Golden Globe will take it. The rest of the nominees have NO
chance. But Melissa McCarthy who has never given any
indication she could be so brilliant took the most risks in
her role and is the most deserving. Olivia Coleman was great
but her part was comparatively small for a best actress nom.
|
|
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron ("Roma")
Yorgos Lanthimos ("The Favourite")
Spike Lee ("BlacKkKlansman")
Adam McKay ("Vice")
Pawel Pawlikowski ("Cold
War")
|
And
the winner is:
Alfonso Cuaron ("Roma")
In a year of ambitious cinematic undertakings, there’s one
film that inhabits the exacting vision of its filmmaker:
Alfonso Cuarón‘s Roma. Cuarón, who won the Best Director
Golden Globe as well as the top prize from the Directors
Guild (DGA) and Britain’s BAFTA, is the one to beat this
season and his Roma is certainly a cinematic feast. This is
Cuarón’s magnum opus, as the filmmaker tells a very personal
tale that he wrote, directed, produced, shot, and edited,
once again with a quiet and nuanced examination of humanity
seen in his previous works.
|
My
Take: As is the case every year one of the Best Picture
nominees directed itself. This year Bradley Cooper got
screwed in his impressive debut. This category is basically
the United Nations. Cuaron has already won the Directors
Guild of America award so there is little suspense here.
My Prediction:
Alfonso Cuaron ("Roma")
|
Will
Win: Spike Lee
Should Win: Pawel Pawilkowski
Spike Lee’s film is not his best, but Oscar voters might
reward him for a great career and previous snubs (The
forgettable Driving Miss Daisy beat Do the Right Thing, the
best film ever about race) like they did for Scorsese when
he won for the not particularly brilliant, The
Departed. Cuaron also has a shot. Pawel is a
genius and his work on Cold War was brilliant, but he will
go home award less (Cold
War was also better in every way than all but
one of the best picture nominees.)
|
|
Best Picture
“Black Panther"
(Kevin Feige, Producer)
"BlacKkKlansman" (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond
Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers)
"Bohemian Rhapsody" (Graham King, Producer)
"The Favourite" (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and
Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers)
"Roma" (Gabriela Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuaron, Producers)
"Green Book" (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie,
Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers)
"A Star Is Born" (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette
Howell Taylor, Producers)
"Vice" (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin
Messick, Producers)
|
And
the winner is: "Roma" (Gabriela Rodriguez
& Alfonso Cuaron, Producers)
Alfonso Cuarón's long-time passion project Roma has been the
subject of many an awards season debate. It has bags of
awards under its belt already, including the top prize at
the Venice Film Festival, but many had predicted that its
status as a Netflix exclusive would hinder its chances at
the Oscars. Cuarón and company needn't have worried, as Roma
outperformed even the most optimistic expectations and
bagged 10 nominations. Now, going into the official race
itself, Roma is the favorite for Best Picture, and with good
reason: It's a sumptuously made film that shows Cuarón,
already an Oscar winner himself, at the peak of his powers.
Plus, in a year with more controversial Best Picture
choices, including Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book, Roma
may oddly end up being a safe consensus pick.
|
My
Take: Rhapsody just doesn’t belong here. It was directed by
two people and whereas it was considered entertaining it
being here is a stretch. Klansman was a surprise but it at
least belongs. Vice has detractors but it s a very good
film. The Favourite
is a prestige film that from the moment you saw the trailer
you knew it was a likely nominee.
Black Panther
was a cultural phenomenon. Green Book is an understated look
at race relations that has a larger impact than you would
think it would. A Star Is Born
is one of my favorite films or last year. And then there is
Roma. It’s a small film from a major director but played in
only a few theaters and will be seen my most people on
Netflix. Alfonso Cuaron is going to win Best Director but
giving the award to Roma reinforces the perception that the
Academy voters are elitist. So this is a heart/perception
deal.
My Prediction: Roma (because the Academy doesn’t care) but
Vice could steal it as could
Black Panther.
|
Will
win: Roma
Should win: The Favourite
None of the best pic choices are what you would call life
changing masterpieces, but
The Favourite,
Black Panther,
Blackkkklannsman, and Roma all have great moments and/or
aspects. The rest are 3 star films, except for Bohemian
Rhapsody which deserves two and a half stars (only because
of the better than average lead performance.) A Star Is Born
is a solid, well-acted formula picture that may be too
slight to win (it is not even the best cinematic version of
the story.) But Gaga and Cooper were impressive. If Beale
Street Could Talk,
At Eternity’s Gate,
Blindspotting, and
First Reformed were
robbed. Roma is gorgeous and a front runner in many polls,
but I am not completely sure Oscar voters would pick a
foreign language film (especially so soon after
The Shape of Water)
that came out on Netflix, but the whole immigration debate
might work to its advantage. The smarmy, self-satisfied Vice
probably does not have a shot.
I originally picked Green Book to win because it is just the
type of safe, homogenized, socially conscious film centered
on white people with an everything would be fine if we just
got along message that Oscar voters have gone for in the
past (It is clearly an advance over Driving Miss Daisy
though).
But the film seems to have lost all momentum (no one even
seems to be talking about it) and the tide seems to be
drifting more and more towards Roma.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Review © 2019 Alternate Reality, Inc. |
|
|
|
|
|
