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(022618) The 90th Oscars will be held on
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood &
Highland Center in Hollywood, and will be televised live on
ABC with Jimmy Kimmel again serving as this years host.
Kimmel’s only the second person to achieve such a feat,
after Billy Crystal in 1997 and 1998. As in past years we invited
our critics to weigh in with their predictions for this
years Oscar race and once again they rose to the task.
Back again is reviewer emeritus "Good Old JR" Jim Rutkowski.
He is again being joined by our newsman emeritus Larry "Bocepheus" Evans and the "Big Tuna" himself Vito Carli
has returned again as well. Of the 22
principle categories this year (all listed below) none of our titanic trio of
critics tackled every single nomination, but all were given
the option. "None
picked" means the reviewer chose to skip that category for
whatever reason. In total there are a total of fifty
predictions below by all three reviewers.
A word on the format: If you are reading this before March
4th the order of the nominations conforms to the order
awards were announced at the 2017 Oscar telecast. If this
years order deviates from last years, the appropriate
structural change to this list will be made after this years
telecast to conform with the 2018 broadcast. Beyond that
(and the final tally) no edits will be made to this list.
The linked film titles below are to reviews on this site of
the film being cited. The links themselves do not correspond
to the reviewers themselves but rather to the review located
on this site.
Finally, after you read this years reviews be sure to check
out this years Oscar Podcast featuring Good Old Jr,
Bocepheus, Rod Flash and Comicbookman and they delve into
even greater depth on this years potential winners....
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EPISODE 64: OSCAR
PICKS 2018
(022618)
Our Picks for the 90th Annual Academy Awards |
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Enjoy and good luck to all... |
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 Here’s
an idea for the producers of the 2018 Oscars telecast: Bring back the same
briefcase-toting accountants whose poor envelope-handling skills so famously
botched the best picture announcement last year. Better yet, feed them a steady
diet of wine before and during the show. I figure those are the best chances of
having something unpredictable happen when the 90th annual Academy Awards are
handed out Sunday, March 4. We already know, for example, that returning host
Jimmy Kimmel will impishly but charmingly walk a political tightrope during his
monologue, insulting nearly everyone in the room but somehow making them smile
about it. We also know that the women’s equality and empowerment movement that
has dominated this awards season -- and “blacked out” red carpet after red
carpet in the process -- will once more provide a poignant narrative
through-line for the evening.
And, most importantly, we already know who is going to win all the major awards.
Granted, upsets do happen at the Oscars. As evidence, we need look no further
than last year’s show, when perceived front-runner “La La Land” was accidentally
announced as the year’s best picture winner, only to spur an embarrassing --
but, let’s be honest, completely awesome -- on-stage correction that “Moonlight”
was the real winner. But the fact is, when you’re filling out your office Oscar
pool this year, you can’t count on such things. The favorites in the top six
categories appear to be so locked-in at this point of the 2018 award season,
that -- barring another glorious envelope mix-up -- you’d be hard-pressed to
find a realistic upset pick at the top of the ballot. That means if you’re going
to win your pool, you just might have to do it in the other 18 Oscar categories
-- you know, the ones for sound, screenwriting, visual effects and the like.
With that in mind, below you’ll find my annual predictions in most of the Oscar
categories, developed after a close read of a raft of pre-Oscar awards, viewing
of a vast majority of nominees -- and a little bit of help from my trusty Magic
8-Ball.
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 Welcome
to our annual Oscar picks. First let’s go over the numbers.
The Shape of Water
got thirteen nominations,
Dunkirk eight, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing
Missouri got seven, Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread got six, Lady Bird and
Blade Runner 2049 got five, Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound and
Star Wars: The Last Jedi got four.
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 2017
was chock filled with films that had great contributions from female, minority,
queer (does anyone still use that word?) and Trans people than ever. And
surprisingly the Oscars have gone out of their way to be more diverse. So this
year the movies, Ladybird, Get Out, Mudbound, A Fantastic Woman, Call Me By Your
Name, and Strong Island got mostly deserved nominations. Some of them might
actually win
Some complained that
Wonder Woman should have gotten nominated. It should not
have come as a big surprise that it wasn’t. While it was both a box office and
critical triumph. Superhero films hardly ever get nominated (although
Logan got
an unexpected best screenplay nod), and the film was released too early in the
year. Still with the nominations of
Logan and Get Out the academy is at least
masking strides toward recognizing that genre films actually exist.
A big chance is also more direct to Netflix nominees including Mudbound,
Heroin(e), the foreign-language film from Hungary, On Body and Soul, and two
full length documentaries; and Strong Island.
To see more of my Vittorio Carli’s work go to
www.artinterviews.org. Also
look for my upcoming poetry book, Tape Worm Salad with Olive Oil for Extra
Flavor coming in 2018.
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Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
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 And
the winner will be: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside
Ebbing, Missouri”
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Rockwell has
taken home all the major pre-Oscar awards -- the Golden
Globe, the Critics’ Choice Award, the BAFTA, the SAG -- and
is thus a lock in this category. He’s also a tremendous
actor who always takes interesting and challenging roles. In
Three Billboards he's good in a not so good movie. If I was
handing out little gold man, Dafoe is the best of the bunch.
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 My
pick: There are some that think that Dafoe will win but my
money is on Rockwell for his performance in Three
Billboards. It’s nuanced and complicated at the same time.
In the course of the film he goes from a buffoon to a man
who has truly examined himself and found himself wanting.
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 Should
Win: Willem Dafoe
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Assuming there is a Three Billboards sweep, Sam Rockwell’s
performance or (Woody Harrelson’s) has a more than good
chance at winning unless they spilt the vote. Harrelson is a
bigger marquee name but they were both excellent, and
Rockwell had a bigger part so he gets a slight nod. I never
saw All the Money in the World (I wish I saw more money),
but it is one of the least nominated nominees, and I don’t
think it will win in this one category. Richard Jenkins may
not be big enough or likeable enough in his film to pull off
a win. Dafoe is one of the finest, risk taking character
actors around, and I have always admired his work immensely
(he was a great Jesus and all his work with Lars Von Trier
is always worth seeing). Plus his performance as a likeable
sympathetic landlord in The Florida Experiment was terrific.
Too bad the film did not make a better splash (it should
have been nominated for best picture.) |
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Best Documentary – Feature
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten,
Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren
Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
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And
the winner will be: None picked |
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My
pick: None picked |
Should
win: Faces Places
Will Win: Icarus
Faces Places was a complete home run from Agnes Varda, one
of the few surviving members of the French new wave. She may
not live long enough to get another nod, and she has been
around forever (I loved Vagabond). It was worth it just to
see her film just to see jean-Luc Godard blow her off on
screen. It is the best film here. Strong Island and Icarus
were also both superb. Strong Island has more emotionally
resonance, but Icarus which deals with the Russian doping
scandal is more relevant because of the current ongoing
Russian election medaling investigation. Last Men in Aleppo
has great word of mouth and it also has a shot. Icarus, Last
Men, and Strong Island are all on Netflix. For once this
might be helpful because it’s difficult to find these films
at the theatres. |
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Best Sound Editing
“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood
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And
the winner will be: “Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
Exactly the type of movie -- that is, it is a big, loud war
movie -- that this category loves.
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My
pick: None picked |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
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Best Sound Mixing
“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David
Parker, Michael Semanick
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And
the winner will be: “Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo |
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My
pick: None picked |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
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Best Production Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A.
Melvin, Shane Vieau
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And
the winner will be: “The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau |
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My
pick:
Blade Runner 2049 hands down. The film creates an
even darker version of the world seen in the original. |
Should
Win: None picked
Will Win: None
picked |
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Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
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And
the winner will be: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
It's going to be Janney. But, listen: You’re not going to
win your Oscar pool if you don’t pick an upset here or
there. This could be a category in which you might think
about doing so, as Metcalf and Janney took turns taking home
the hardware in this category all award season. Here’s the
thing, though: Most of Metcalf’s wins came from critics’
groups, the members of which don’t vote for the Oscars.
Janney’s support, on the other hand, includes a SAG win,
from a group made up of actors, who happen to make up the
single largest voting bloc in the Academy. For that reason,
Janney has to be seen as a favorite -- and a pretty solid
one. But surprises do happen.
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My
pick: Allison Janney who turns in a performance that makes
you feel nothing but loathing for her from the start of the
film to the end. If Tonya Harding’s mother was even half
this then it’s a wonder she didn’t go crazy.
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Should
win; Laurie Metcalf
Will win: Allison Janney (by a hair)
Mary J. Blige was excellent in Mudbound, but it would be
unprecedented for a Netflix film to win in a major category.
It might help that she is a double threat and that she is
both a talented singer and actress. But then again the
academy tends to underrate singers turned actors (in
previous years Bjork got stiffed for Dancer in the Dark and
Courtney Love for People vs Larry Flynt despite Golden Globe
noms.) Alison Janney and Laura Metcalf have more of a chance
(both of them were superb playing powerful, flawed moms.)
Octavia Spencer was perfectly likeable in
The Shape of Water,
but I don’t quite think she is in the running. Her role is
small compared to some of her competitors. Lesley Manville
was fine as a saintly wife in Phantom Thread, but the she is
too much of an unknown quantity foe voters (I never heard of
her before this film. Also Day Lewis IS the reason that film
exists. This should be called battle of the cinematic moms. |
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Best Animated Feature Film
“The Boss Baby,”
“The Breadwinner,”
“Coco,”
“Ferdinand,”
“Loving Vincent,”
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And
the winner will be: “Coco”
Pixar’s lovely and entirely embraceable flight of fancy
built around Mexico’s Day of the Dead celebrations. It might
feel a touch lightweight compared to some of the studio’s
other Oscar-winning fare, but it hit all the right notes --
and, just as important, it won all the big pre-Oscar awards,
including the Annie Award, the Critics’ Choice Award, the
Golden Globe, and the Producers Guild Award. All of that
adds up to an 18th Oscar win for the hit-makers at Pixar.
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My
pick: I’m going with
Coco. |
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I
only saw half of the best animated films but of the ones I
saw
Coco was the best and it has the most cultural
significance (at least Captain Underpants was not
nominated.) Loving Vincent, the sumptuous Van Gogh film also
worked well and it looked gorgeous, but it’s the underdog
here. Ferdinand is a big dud. |
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Best Film Editing
“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory
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And
the winner will be: “Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
Conventional wisdom says your best picture pick should also
be your pick for best editing. In this case, I’m going to
stray from conventional wisdom. (Upset pick: “Baby Driver.”)
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My
pick: Only two of the nominees tell a linear story. My heart
says
Dunkirk but Baby Driver should win here since it’s the
most kinetic nominee. |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
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Best Documentary – Short
Subject
Edith and Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic
Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop |
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And
the winner will be: None picked |
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My
pick: None picked |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
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Best Live Action – Short
Film
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote: All of Us
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And
the winner will be: None picked |
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My
pick: None picked |
Should
Win: None
picked
Will Win: None
picked |
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Best Adapted Screenplay
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
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And
the winner will be: “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
A film that has received universal acclaim but which will
likely find itself shut out of Oscar’s main categories.
Here’s a place for the Academy to recognize it.
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My
pick: This one is a coin flip. Sorkin delivers another
amazing script in Molly’s Game; Ivory is the prestige pick;
most never saw Mudbound and Disaster Artist has too much
baggage right now. That would leave
Logan but I don’t think
the Academy will give the film that much love. So I am going
with Sorkin.
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All
of the nominees were excellent. It was a surprise that the
X-Men film,
Logan was nominated but it’s the underdog.
Academy voters usually see superhero and other “disreputable
“genre films as a kind of cinematic vermin. Both Molly’s
Game (Jessica Chastain also should have been nominated for
best actress) and The Disaster Artist were terrific, but I
think Call me By Your name will win. It was the most
nominated of the contenders, and it has the most momentum.
Also James Ivory is an old time film guy with lots of
respect. It’s also decently done, and the people supporting
it tend to love it. |
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Best Original Screenplay
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh
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And
the winner will be: “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
Which, as one of the buzziest films of the year, has already
made a winner out of Jordan Peele. Now he’ll get an Oscar
statuette to prove it.
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My
pick: This is a hard category.
The Shape of Water is basically a
retool of Creature from the Black Lagoon; Big Sick is a
comedy with dramatic elements; I just can’t see the massive
love for Lady Bird. That means its either Peele or McDonagh
and so I am picking Peele since even though we knew he could
write Get Out just blew me away.
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Will
and Should win: Get Out
Original screenplay: I am going with Get Out for both should
and will win. The most adventurous genre breaking films
sometimes get rewarded in lesser categories. The Big Sick is
a marvelous little gem that has a remote shot, but Greta
Gerwig could also win. |
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Best Cinematography
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen
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And
the winner will be: “Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
Thirteen times has Roger Deakins been nominated in this
category. And 13 times he has lost. That finally changes
this year with his 14th nomination.
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My
pick: Deakins for Blade Runner. It’s another brilliant job
from him. The dark horse here is Laustsen but Deakins is the
man to beat.
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Should
Win: “Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
Will Win: “The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen
The Shape of Water will take it because it is the biggest
profile nominee, and it is also gorgeous. But Roger Deakins
is even worthier for his incredibly sumptuous Blade Runner
follow-up (it actually visually rivals the original classic
in some aspects). I would be a little surprised but not
terribly disappointed if Mudbound won. Rachel Morrison did
good work in it and she also shot
Black Panther. Both
Dunkirk and Darkest Hour should not have been nominated.
Wind River which had some of the year’s best cinematography
got robbed here |
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Best Original Score
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell
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And
the winner will be: “The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
Alexandre Desplat is expected to win for a score that helped
del Toro's film sweep audiences away on ripples of ravishing
romance. SPOILER: Phantom Thread. If it was my choice to
award an Oscar in this category, it would go to Jonny
Greenwood, the lead guitarist of Radiohead who gave Paul
Thomas Anderson's film its orchestral dissonance and beating
heart. Though Greenwood has composed indelible scores for
Anderson's There Will Be Blood, The Master and Inherent
Vice, this nomination is, shockingly, his first.
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My
pick: The trick to a great score is supposedly that you
barely notice it’s there. All of these nominees are great
but Desplat’s score for
The Shape of Water added so much to the
story that it’s the winner for me.
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I’ve
heard and respect all these names, but Jonnny Greenwood,
from Radiohead is a composing/guitar playing deity. Burn the
Witch. I also think his work was used better in the film
than the competition. Since Mary J. Blige also acts in
Mudbound this might give her an advantage in the best song
category. |
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Best Original Song
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan
Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert
Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren,
Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin
Paul
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And
the winner will be: “Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen
Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Remember Me,” was written by the same people who
wrote “Let It Go” from “Frozen,” another Oscar-winning song.
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My
pick: The idea of the Best Song should be one you are
humming out of the theater and all the way home. None of
these songs are like that but Remember Me is the winner.
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Sufjan
Stevens song is the only one that made me recall actual
scenes from the movie. I’ll go with it for should and will
win. Common’s song was good too and it does not hurt that he
is also a credible actor (he was an army official in Megan
Leavey.) I’m still going with Sufjan. You can listen to his
masterpiece, Come On Feel the Illinoise (correct spelling)
right here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=426jqFZa99Y |
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Best Director
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro
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And
the winner will be: “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro
Not only is he recognized as one of Hollywood’s genuine nice
guys, but among the raft of pre-Oscar awards he’s taken home
this year is the Director’s Guild Award, the winner of which
has gone on to win the best director Oscar all but five
times since 1980. That all combines to make del Toro pretty
much a shoo-in to win his first directing Oscar.
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My
pick: Since Guillermo del Toro has already gotten the
Directors Guild of America award he’s obviously getting this
one unless the Academy decides to break tradition. And if
that happens then Nolan will get the nod.
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Should
win: Gerwig or Peele
Will Win: Anyone except Nolan has a shot (with a slight nod
to Peele and Gerwig.)
For me this is the most significant category, since the
actual voters are themselves directors. The directors often
have better taste than the general Oscar voters, and this
category usually has it least some sane choices for
nominations even if the winners are sometimes ludicrous
(Kevin Costner over Scorsese? Really?) Christopher Nolan
probably won’t take this award this time (he should have
gotten one for Inception). Jordan (Get Out) Peele and Greta
(Lady Bird) Gerwig each have a good chance, but Lady Bird is
a little more likely to win in an acting category, and Get
Out is more likely to get honored for its writing. Del Torro
and Anderson have a shot but their works are arty and
esoteric. Remember for some Oscar voters, Ordinary People is
edgy. |
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Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
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And
the winner will be: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Oldman delivers an Oscar performance on a silver platter. He
disappears beneath the prosthetics snd gives a lovely
performance. Nuanced and substantial.
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My
pick: Here’s where you have to consider the mentality of the
voters. Chalamet and Kaluuya are first timers so they aren’t
going to win here. Washington has given us a lot of great
performances but this one while good doesn’t make my cut. So
it’s between the Brits. Day Lewis has won multiple times and
says he’s retiring so this could be a great parting gift but
my gut tells me Oldman is going home with the statue.
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Should
Win: Gary Oldman
Will win: Gary Oldman
Tomothee Chalamet gave a convincing performance in Call Me
by Your Name, but he (and the film) has little star power.
Also there is some controversy due to the apparent age
disparity of the actors playing the lovers even though the
age of consent in Italy is lower (Of course this did not
hurt Polanski). But these are different times and the voters
are more likely to punish real or fictional sexual
indiscretions. Denzel Washington is always superb, but Roman
J. Israel was not a particularly important or well-reviewed
film. Gary Oldman is probably my preferred choice here and
also the probable winner. He’s extraordinarily good and if
you watch his performance here back to back with Sid and
Nancy he’s unrecognizable. Oldman is the one actor here who
totally remade himself in the role. Daniel Day Lewis has a
shot because this may be his last film and everyone respects
him, but his character in The Phantom Thread might not be
likeable enough though. Daniel Kaluuya is fine, but he’s a
bit too new, unknown and obscure. He won’t win unless there
is a Get Out sweep which is unlikely but not impossible. Of
the nominees, Daniel Day Lewis and Washington are the best
actors overall if you look at their whole careers, but
Oldman did the exact kind of role Oscar voters typically
love and it may be his quintessential performance. The most
edgy and challenging male performance I saw was James Franco
in The Disaster Artist, but I don’t think the sexual
harassment allegations helped him. |
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Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing,
Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
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And
the winner will be: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Like the best actor race, this one is pretty locked up at
this point, although the field here is stronger so there’s
probably at least a possibility of a surprise, however
infinitesimal. Speaking purely objectively, however,
McDormand, like Oldman, has taken home all the major
pre-Oscar awards, which suggests the type of universal
industry support that is all but impossible to overcome. |
My
pick: This isn’t even hard. McDormand is the clear winner
with a performance that took my breath away.
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Should
win McDormand or perhaps Saorsie Ronan (Except for Streep
they are all worthy)
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Margo Robie was impressive in I Tonya, but it is still early
in her career and she will have other chances (The academy
often rewards legacies over individual performances or films
which is why Scorsese won for
The Departed). Sally Hawkins
is always extraordinary, but she actually gave a better
performance in Sadie this year. She still might win. Saoirse
was brilliant in Lady Bird (she was even a little better in
her previously nominated film, Brooklyn). Meryl Streep gave
a bland, milquetoast performance in The Post, and she does
not deserve a win this time (unless they reward her for last
year’s anti Trump speech), and I don’t think she should have
been nominated. At this point she would get nominated for
sleepwalking. But Frances McDormand gave a once in a
lifetime performance, and her work had the most dramatic
weight of all the nominees. I think she will get it this
time. Where is Kristin Stewart (Personal Shopper), Cynthia
Nixon (A Quiet Passion) and Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game?)
In all fairness this is the most overcrowded category and it
was one of the better years for female performances. Gail
Gadot will also have to wait. |
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Best Picture
“Call Me by
Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
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And
the winner will be: "The Shape of Water"
As award season has dragged on, it’s become clear that this
has become a two-movie race, between Guillermo Del Toro’s
fantasy romance and Martin McDonough’s entirely unromantic
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” While both are
very much still in the picture, observant Oscar-watchers
undoubtedly noticed that McDonogh wasn’t nominated for best
director -- which is no small thing. Only twice in Oscar’s
history has the Academy given its top award to a film that
wasn’t nominated for best director: “Driving Miss Daisy” in
1990 and “Argo” in 2013. Of course, there’s a chance that
“Three Billboards” could still pull of an upset here; since
the Academy expanded the field in this category to include
as many as 10 nominees, historical precedent hasn’t been as
ironclad as it once was. But if you’re playing the odds,
you’ve got to favor “The Shape of Water.”
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My
pick: So here we have 10 films each with their own merits.
The smaller films win and the perception the Academy is
obtuse continues. So that lets out Call Me, Lady Bird and
Phantom Thread. That leaves us with seven films all of which
could win. I enjoyed Darkest Hour but don’t see it as the
best film of the year. The Post is great but I don’t see it
winning. That leaves us with four films all of which made my
top ten list for the year.
Dunkirk isn’t going to win which
leaves us with a drama, a horror film with a social message
and a science fiction film. The Academy usually ignores
genre films but if del Toro wins Best Director then he
should win here but the best bet is Three Billboards and
that’s who I am picking.
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Should Win: Get Out
Will Win: Three Billboards (the Post is my 2nd choice)
The Shape of Water is by far the most visually impressive and
dazzling of the best picture nominees, but I don’t think its
interspecies romance story (imagine a remake of Creature
from the Black Lagoon story in which the gill man’s crush is
reciprocated) will win over enough voters. Look for it to
win some technical categories (perhaps best cinematography,
visual effects or set design). Three Billboards Outside
Ebbing, Missouri has outstanding acting and characters, but
its open ended ending might not thrill everyone. It still
has a good shot (perhaps the best shot) at winning. Get Out
was extraordinarily memorable, and in my opinion it is the
best of the nominees. But the last time that a horror film
won best picture was Silence of the Lambs (the superior
Psycho was not even nominated.) Phantom Thread has one of
the best performances. But it might be too cerebral, icy,
esoteric and melancholy to win (Day Lewis may take best
actor though). The Post is just the kind of no risk,
conventional film filled with noble characters that Oscar
voters tend to love, and it also has plenty of star power.
But it’s the weakest and most conventional of the nominees,
but I think it still has a pretty good shot. Lady Bird is
fresh, lively, and refreshing, and it could win if a strong
female/feminist Oscar contingent pushes for it, and it also
is also quite worthy. It’s also about time a woman won that
award again (Jane Campion where are you?). Call Me by Your
Name and Darkest Hour could pull an upset, but they may not
have the momentum.
Dunkirk was somewhat overrated, and it
probably came out too early in the year to make a big impact
with voters. Christopher Nolan is a great director but this
is not his best work. Florida Project which was my fav
American film of the year got screwed. Personal Shopper
which got no nominations for anything and some of the best
foreign film nominees were also better than most of this
list. |
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Review © 2018 Alternate Reality, Inc. |
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